3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Sunday 12/29/24

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

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Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lighting

Canadiens Moneyline (+198)

The Tampa Bay Lightning have a quick turnaround. After dispatching the New York Rangers on Sunday night, they turn around for a Sunday matinee versus the Montreal Canadiens on Sunday. That condensed schedule is compounded by deteriorating metrics, leaving an edge in backing the visitors.

Tampa Bay has been thoroughly outplayed over its past couple of games. The Bolts have posted a combined 37.0% expected goals-for rating while attempting just 10 high-danger chances across their last two. The more concerning position is the wedge forming between actual and expected metrics. Tampa Bay has outscored its opponents 10-2 over the modest stretch, implying they are immediate regression candidates.

Montreal can facilitate some of that impending correction. The Habs have been on an upward trajectory, outplaying their opponents in four of their last five. That renewed success has been built on improved defensive play, with Montreal holding three of its past four opponents to six or fewer high-danger chances.

The Canadiens are playing with the defensive structure to extend the Lightning’s offensive woes. Further, we are anticipating a reversal of fortune for the Lightning in the short term. Those factors support the idea that the Habs are on the right side.

Calgary Flames vs. Vegas Golden Knights

Golden Knights Moneyline (-215)

No one expected the Calgary Flames to compete. A rebuilding franchise with more unknowns than NHL-ready components at the start of the season, the Flames are still very much in the playoff race as we head into the New Year. While their efforts have been admirable, the Flames are in for a letdown on Sunday night against the Vegas Golden Knights.

Calgary is skating on the second night of a back-to-back, which is never an ideal spot for a young team. Still, the more concerning factor is the Flames’ ineffective on-ice play. Before Saturday’s tilt, the Flames had been outplayed in four of their past five, yielding a 45.4% expected goals-for rating. That lackluster benchmark is unlikely to improve against the Pacific Division leaders.

While their recent outcomes reflect their sub-optimal play, Calgary's underlying metrics support ongoing correction is anticipated. They continue to operate ahead of their expected rating goals, with a slightly above-average PDO. As a result, we should see more losses as the actual metrics balance with what is expected.

The Golden Knights are primed to extend the Flames recent woes. They’ve outplayed their opponents in three straight and should have no problem dictating pace and tempo against a road-weary Flames side. There’s value in backing the Knights.

Ottawa Senators vs. Minnesota Wild

Wild Moneyline (-154)

The Ottawa Senators face a quick turnaround on Sunday night. Fresh off a 4-2 loss to the Winnipeg Jets on Saturday, the Sens are back in action Sunday versus the Minnesota Wild. As it stands, there’s a decisive edge on the hosts.

Minnesota’s advantage goes beyond scheduling. The Wild have been one of the top analytics teams in the league this season, and their proficiency is reflected in their recent performances. Minny has outplayed its opponents in two straight and five of its past seven, dominance that is amplified on home ice.

The Senators’ metrics are slipping away. Ottawa has been outplayed in four straight, amid deteriorating offensive performances. The Sens have been held to 10 high-danger and 28 scoring chances over their last two, tallying just one goal at five-on-five and three across all strengths.

There may be an edge in taking the under in this inter-conference battle. Still, the more advantageous entry point is backing the Wild as short home favorites.

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