3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Sunday 12/1/24

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

Get inside the crease and access who is starting in tonight’s NHL matchups and save projections with SportsGrid’s Starting Goalies Page.

Montreal Canadiens vs. Boston Bruins

Canadiens Moneyline (+198)

Any time we get an Original Six matchup between the Montreal Canadiens and Boston Bruins, it’s worth tuning in. These Atlantic Division foes are both trying to make a move up the standings and assert themselves as playoff contenders. The betting price would make you believe that the Bruins are decisive favorites; however, these teams’ analytics profile paint a substantially different picture.

Montreal has been on an upward trajectory with its recent performances. The Habs have outplayed their opponents in four of five, yielding a 56.9% expected goals-for rating. Still, that benchmark doesn’t do the Canadiens justice. Montreal has been dominating play on both ends of the ice. Over that five-game sample, the Habs are averaging 11.0 high-danger chances per game while eclipsing 12 such opportunities on three occasions. Their defensive prowess has been equally as impressive. Four of Montreal’s past five opponents have been held below nine quality chances with a rolling average of 7.4 high-danger chances per game.

Boston will soon come to regret its coaching change. The B’s have been completely outmatched this week, posting consecutive game scores below 41.1%. Boston has mustered just 13 high-danger chances across that modest stretch, which is equal to the amount of opportunities they gave up to the Pittsburgh Penguins last time out.

The Bruins were barely hanging on with their Jack Adams-winning coach behind the bench. Now, they are utterly failing. Montreal has asserted itself as an analytics powerhouse with its recent efforts. Given the state of both of these teams, we see value in backing the Habs as steep road underdogs on Sunday afternoon.

Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Chicago Blackhawks

Blackhawks Moneyline (+114)

Two former division rivals and now inter-conference foes take to the ice at the United Center, with the Chicago Blackhawks hosting the Columbus Blue Jackets. Neither team is exuding confidence over their recent sample, but the Blackhawks have a pronounced advantage skating at home.

As is typically the case with young teams, the Blackhawks do their best work in their friendly confines. Chicago has limited all but three of its nine opponents to nine or fewer high-danger chances in the Windy City, correlating with fewer goals against. Four of their past six opponents have tallied just one goal at five-on-five, contributing to a 92.5% save percentage. That benchmark looks even more impressive across all strengths with Blackhawks’ netminders combining for a 92.1% save percentage across the six-game sample.

Credit to the Blue Jackets for extracting maximum value from their offense recently; however, Columbus has struck a completely unsustainable balance. Over their past five games, the Jackets are scoring on 11.3% of their shots at five-on-five and 14.9% across all strengths. Those benchmarks represent a significant departure from their respective season norms of 10.2% and 11.0%. That anticipated regression looms even larger when we factor in Columbus’ eight or fewer high-danger chances in four of its previous five.

Chicago does its best work on home ice, particularly in the defensive end. The Blue Jackets unable to sustain their current scoring output and should come back down to earth in a hurry. The Hawks can facilitate that regression en route to their third win in five games.

Ottawa Senators vs. Anaheim Ducks

Ducks Moneyline (+142)

The Ottawa Senators are in an unfavorable betting spot on Sunday night. Ottawa enters its inter-conference matchup against the Anaheim Ducks on the second night of a back-to-back while playing its third game in five nights three time zones away from home. Compounding those issues, the Sens’ on-ice product has suffered in recent outings, putting them at a more significant disadvantage versus the Ducks.

Offensively, the Senators have hit a brick wall. Ottawa has fallen below eight high-danger chances in four of its past five while also coming up short of 18 scoring opportunities in three of five. Predictably, that limited offensive efficacy correlates with a diminishing expected goals-for rating of 40.9%. At some point we will start to expect progression, but that’s unlikely to come in this unfavorable scheduling scenario so far from home.

Anaheim is in a much better situation on Sunday night. The Ducks will be playing at home for the fourth time in five games and haven’t left the Pacific timezone since the middle of November. More importantly, that familiarity has gone a long way to improving their underlying metrics. The Ducks have posted an above-average expected goals-for rating in two straight and three of five, a stretch that only includes two wins.

The Ducks are natural progression candidates and match up well against a faltering Sens squad. Based on the current betting price, we see an edge in taking Anaheim to pull off the upset and prolonging the Sens’ misery.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $150 in Bonus Bets if your first bet of $5+ wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!