3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Saturday 11/30/24

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

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Philadelphia Flyers vs. St. Louis Blues

Under 5.5 (+102)

Assuredly, a coaching change boosts the St. Louis Blues prospects moving forward. Just five days after being fired by the Boston Bruins, the Blues brought on Jim Montgomery to take over behind the bench. He hasn’t had much time to make an impression with his new team, but early returns are promising. St. Louis should have no problem carrying that momentum into Saturday’s clash versus the Philadelphia Flyers.

Solid defensive structure has been Montgomery’s calling card his entire career, and we’re seeing that play out in St. Louis. In two games with Montgomery behind the bench, the Blues have limited their opponents to a combined 44 scoring and just 12 high-danger chances. Clearly, the Blues’ goalies are benefitting from the improved defensive efficiency. Collectively, they’ve stopped 58 of the 60 shots faced, including a shutout performance last time out.

Surprisingly, the Flyers have played with similar defensive tenacity over their recent sample. They’ve held their past four opponents to eight or fewer high-danger chances, with a rolling average of just 6.5 opportunities per game. Predictably, those robust defensive performances correlate with low-scoring games. The Flyers have fallen beneath the total in three of those four outings.

Chances will be at a premium at the Enterprise Center on Saturday night. Consequently, there’s an implied advantage in backing this inter-conference affair to fall below the total.

Nashville Predators vs. Minnesota Wild

Wild Moneyline (-134)

Hockey fans in The North Star State will be treated to a pivotal Central Division showdown as the Minnesota Wild host the Nashville Predators on Saturday night. Minnesota is coming off consecutive wins, but they should be able to make it three in a row against the Preds.

The Predators did themselves no favors with their goaltending usage. Nashville trotted out primary netminder Juuse Saros for Friday night’s home battle against the Tampa Bay Lightning. That means that, in all likelihood, Scott Wedgewood and his 87.8% save percentage will be between the pipes versus Minnesota. That’s a concerning issue for a team that’s given up 37 high-danger chances over their past three games, with two of those opponents cracking double-digits.

On the other bench, the Wild continue to put forth some elite metrics. Minnesota has outplayed its opponents in four of its previous six, generating a 55.6% expected goals-for rating. The sustained analytics success positions the Wild for more wins across their immediate schedule. Moreover, the implied probability of the current betting price underestimates Minnesota’s chances of walking away victorious.

Nashville’s on-ice product has suffered in recent outings, a trend that puts the Preds at an even more pronounced disadvantage with Wedgewood starting in net. The Wild have been on a tear recently, and that’s unlikely to change at home on Saturday night.

Ottawa Senators vs. Los Angeles Kings

Kings Moneyline (-124)

The upstart Ottawa Senators will be looking to extend their modest two-game winning streak as they tackle the Los Angeles Kings at Cypto.com Arena. However, eroding metrics and ineffective goaltending put the Sens at a significant disadvantage in SoCal.

A torrid streak to start the campaign has come to an abrupt halt for the Senators. Ottawa started the season as an elite analytics team but has seen its standing decline over its recent sample. The Sens have been outplayed in four straight games, failing to eclipse the 44.4% expected goals-for rating in any of those contests. Altogether, they’re languishing with a 38.2% benchmark across the four-game sample. Surprisingly, the Sens have two wins to show for their efforts, putting them on an inevitable path of regression in the immediate future.

Conversely, the Kings are trending much more positively with their recent performances. LA has equaled or out-chanced its opponents in six straight games, posting a cumulative 63.5% high-danger chance rating through. Predictably, that’s precipitated an increase in their expected goals-for rating. The Kings are up to a 64.4% eGF percentage across that sample, thanks in large part to their offensive proficiency.

Ottawa has recently allowed opponents to range freely in the attacking zone, a weakness the Kings will exploit. We’re predicting an offensive onslaught, with the Senators unable to defend whatever the Kings throw at them. Some bettors may be tempted into backing the Kings on the puck line, but the moneyline price is low enough that there remains a significant advantage in backing LA straight up on the moneyline.

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