3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Saturday 11/16/24
Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.
For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.
Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.
NHL Betting Picks Today
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Buffalo Sabres vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Sabres Moneyline (-110)
Winners of three of their past four, everyone has started believing in the Philadelphia Flyers. For just the fifth time this season, the Flyers enter Saturday’s showdown against the Buffalo Sabres as betting favorites. Still, the market has overcorrected on an underwhelming Philadelphia side that has vastly overachieved relative to underlying metrics.
A 3-0-1 stretch has done nothing to improve the Flyers’ analytics. They’ve attempted more than eight high-danger chances just once over their recent stretch while also getting out-chanced in all but one of those contests. Not surprisingly, this is negatively impacting their expected goals-for rating, with the Flyers hovering around 49.5% across the four-game sample. Moreover, they’ve outscored their opponents just once at five-on-five, eroding their ability to continue to win games.
On the other hand, the Sabres have trended upward over their past few games. Buffalo has outplayed its opponents in three straight contests, precipitating a 53.6% expected goals-for rating. Their analytics success is being driven by astute defensive play. The Sabres have held all three opponents to seven or fewer high-danger chances for an average of 5.7 per game. Assuredly, that will keep the Flyers’ ineffective offense at bay.
Philadelphia is still underperforming analytically, making it impossible to rationalize its position as the betting favorite. Backing the Sabres is an ideal value play.
Edmonton Oilers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Over 6.5 (+108)
The NHL’s two poster boys face off in a scintillating inter-conference showdown on Saturday night. Connor McDavid leads his Edmonton Oilers into a tilt against Auston Matthews and the Toronto Maple Leafs. Curiously, the under in this matchup is a chalky -134, but we see an edge in taking the over.
Undoubtedly, the Oilers remain one of the top offensive teams in the league. Their 184 high-danger chances are the second-most across the NHL, and they’ve looked even better in their recent stretch. Edmonton has attempted no fewer than 10 high-danger chances in any of its past five matchups for a robust average of 12.2 per game. Predictably, that’s led to a sharp increase in scoring. The Oilers have recorded 16 goals over their previous four contests, with 11 of those coming at five-on-five.
Still, the Maple Leafs possess the offensive prowess to match wits with the Oilers. Toronto is coming off a four-goal performance, in which the Leafs attempted 12 high-danger and 23 scoring chances. That was the third time in five games in which they recorded four goals, but further offensive progression is anticipated. Currently, the Leafs are operating below their expected goals-for total. Further, their team shooting percentage at five-on-five of 8.2% is substantially below last year’s benchmark of 9.7%.
We’re expecting an offensive showcase at Scotiabank Arena on Saturday. With the over priced at +110, there’s an exploitable advantage in betting this one goes over 6.5.
Ottawa Senators vs. Carolina Hurricanes
Senators Moneyline (+142)
Few people would have predicted that the Ottawa Senators and Carolina Hurricanes would be two juggernauts of the season. Yet here we are, over a month into the 2024-25 campaign, and the Sens have emerged as an unsuspecting contender in a crowded Eastern Conference. They get to sharpen their teeth against one of the premier teams in the league on Saturday night.
Ottawa’s young nucleus has finally come together. So far this season, they’ve accumulated the fourth-best Corsi and sixth-best expected goals-for ratings, ratcheting those benchmarks higher over the past couple of weeks. The Sens have outplayed their opponents in eight straight games, surpassing the 60.0% benchmark on four occasions. In total, they’re operating at a 62.5% clip, which is the best mark in the NHL over that stretch.
Despite the analytics success, the Senators have an underwhelming 4-3-1 record and .985 PDO. We’ve marked them for significant progress in the immediate future as actual outcomes start to reflect their dominant play.
Conversely, the Canes are in a bit of a flat spot on Saturday night. Carolina returns home after a three-game Western Conference road trip, in which the Hurricanes accumulated only one win. Additionally, they’ve been outplayed in two of their past four, setting them up for disaster against the Senators.
Based on the foregoing, we anticipate the Senators will be too much for the Hurricanes to handle. This line could move further in the visitors' direction as we approach puck drop, implying the current offering could be the best value.
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