3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Monday 11/18/24
Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.
For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.
Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.
NHL Betting Picks Today
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Washington Capitals vs. Utah Hockey Club
Utah Moneyline (-105)
The Washington Capitals conclude their three-game Western Conference road trip against the Utah Hockey Club on Monday night. Early returns are promising for Washington, but eroding metrics and a condensed schedule put the Caps at a disadvantage in this inter-conference showdown.
While wins over two Western Conference powers is a notable achievement, the Caps are skating on thin ice. They’ve been outplayed in three straight games and been unsuccessful in generating their usual offense. Washington’s expected goals-for rating has dipped to 38.6% over the three-game sample, and the Capitals have failed to eclipse nine high-danger chances in three of their past four. Despite those shortcomings, Washington has gone 3-0-1 with an increase in scoring. That puts the Caps on an immediate path with regression.
The NHL’s newest team is trending more positively. Utah has settled into its new confines, posting expected goals for ratings above 60.0% in three of its past four. Cumulatively, they are up to a 57.3% expected goals-for rating over their past three games, a span that only includes two wins. Naturally, we’re forecasting more wins for the Utah Hockey Club in the short term.
The Caps are in a scheduling conundrum. This is the second night of a back-to-back and their third game in four nights, all of which have come on the road. Failing metrics compound those issues, leaving an edge in backing an enthusiastic home team playing superb hockey.
Detroit Red Wings vs. San Jose Sharks
Sharks Moneyline (+125)
The Macklin Celebrini era is off to a tepid start in Northern California. Granted, the first-overall pick from the 2024 NHL Draft has only appeared in seven games for the San Jose Sharks. Still, the Pacific Division basement dwellers are just 2-2-3 across those outings. San Jose can add to its win column as they take on a road-weary Detroit Red Wings side at the end of a road trip.
The Red Wings ventured off on their four-game trip on Wednesday of last week. While they started with a win, the Wings followed up with two humbling defeats. Moreover, they’ve been utterly ineffective across the modest sample. Detroit hasn’t attempted more than seven high-danger chances in any of those contests while getting outplayed in two of three. They’ll be skating in their fourth contest in six nights against a feisty Sharks team.
Celebrini has been a driving force on offense for the Sharks. In seven games, the rookie has been on the ice for seven goals, with four coming at five-on-five. Further, he’s been a catalyst for increased production, contributing to 63 scoring and 29 high-danger chances. More importantly, Celebrini’s output has resulted in more team success. The Sharks have tallied eight goals over their past three games, improving their 2.4 goals per game average.
The Sharks are finding offensive success at a time when the Red Wings are not. Insulated on home ice and hosting a beleaguered Wings side, we expect those advantages to be more pronounced than the betting market implies. Our analysis supports that there is an edge in backing the Sharks in this one.
Edmonton Oilers vs. Montreal Canadiens
Oilers Moneyline (-275)
Two Canadian foes renew acquaintances on Monday night. In the middle of a three-game road trip, the Edmonton Oilers invade the Bell Center for a clash with the Montreal Canadiens. Edmonton blew a third-period lead to the Toronto Maple Leafs last time out. Still, we’re expecting them to bounce back with a more sincere effort against the analytically deficient Canadiens.
As has been the case for several years, the Oilers have asserted themselves as an analytics darling. Through their first 18 games of the season, the Oil have the third-best expected goals-for rating in the NHL at 56.9%. However, they’ve set the bar higher with their most recent efforts. Edmonton has outplayed its opponents in six straight games, producing a robust 62.3% benchmark. Despite the analytics success, the Oilers have faltered to a 3-2-1 record over that stretch. Predictably, we’re anticipating more wins for the reigning Western Conference champs as actual metrics start to balance with expected.
Conversely, we have the Habs pegged for regression. Montreal has outperformed its underlying metrics lately, getting outplayed in five of six, including three straight. Across the more recent sample, the Canadiens have seen a massive uptick in output without a corresponding increase in production. Their 12 goals over the three-game sample are vastly superior to the 12 high-danger chances they’ve tallied. A cooling-off period seems inevitable, and we’re predicting that it starts against the Oilers.
So, where the Canadiens can’t sustain their current pace, the Oilers are due for a massive swing of good fortune. On that basis, we see an advantage in backing Edmonton as chalky road favorites in Montreal.
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