3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Friday 11/15/24
Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.
For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.
Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.
NHL Betting Picks Today
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Nashville Predators vs. Calgary Flames
Flames Moneyline +114
Some of the early-season results have already turned the Western Conference upside down.
The Calgary Flames were widely considered to be one of the worst teams in the NHL but have gotten off to an 8-6-2 start to the season. Conversely, the Nashville Predators rebuilt their roster in the offseason and were pegged as frontrunners in the conference. However, the Preds' 5-9-3 record out of the gates has tempered those expectations. Curiously, the Flames are installed as home underdogs tonight versus Nashville, leaving an advantage in backing the hosts at plus money.
The Predators handled their goaltending situation appropriately, preserving stalwart Juuse Saros for the second night of the back-to-back. But that might be the only thing they have working in their favor. Nashville has been out-chanced in high-danger chances in four of its past six, averaging just 8.3 opportunities per game. Not surprisingly, that correlates with an ineffective shooting percentage. Through the six weeks of the season, Nashville is scoring on just 5.2% of its shots, easily the worst mark in the NHL.
Ineffective offensive play puts the Predators at a significant disadvantage against the Flames. Calgary’s netminders have combined for the best five-on-five save percentage in the league, stopping 93.9% of shots faced. Combined with the Flames’ stout defensive systems, we’re projecting ongoing success.
Calgary hasn’t allowed more than nine high-danger chances since October 24. In the 10 games since, opponents average just 6.6 quality opportunities per game. Nashville cannot break through on a good night, let alone on the second night of a back-to-back. The under may be the safer bet, but we can’t overlook the value in backing the Flames at +114.
Detroit Red Wings vs. Anaheim Ducks
Ducks Moneyline +122
The Detroit Red Wings continue to outperform their underlying metrics. Despite putting together one of the worst expected goals-for ratings in the NHL, Detroit is still a respectable 7-7-1. We expect that to come to a screeching halt against an Anaheim Ducks side that has cranked up the dial more recently.
The Red Wings' ineffective play is reflected across their recent schedule. Detroit has been outplayed in four of its previous six contests, yielding a 49.2% expected goals for rating. Still, the Wings are 3-3-0 over that stretch while scoring more than three goals only once. Their unsustainable run may come to an end at the Honda Center.
Loaded with young and promising talent, Anaheim is finding its offensive identity, and we’re seeing glimpses of just how good the Ducks can be. Over their past five games, they’re averaging 11.0 high-danger chances per night, going north of 12 in all but two of those contests. Predictably, that correlates with sturdier expected goals-for ratings, with the Ducks outplaying their opponents in three of five.
Detroit kicked off a four-game road trip with a win over the Pittsburgh Penguins on Wednesday night, but this will be their first game in the Pacific time zone. Mired in a mini-slump, the Wings might be caught off guard by a surging Ducks side. On that basis, we see an edge in backing the home side.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
Over 6.5 -118
We’ve been patiently waiting for the Pittsburgh Penguins to break out. Armed with some of the best analytics in the game, the Pens are primed for a strong showing against a division foe. Still, the Columbus Blue Jackets have low-key been the most underrated offensive team this season and should be able to match wits with the Penguins at home.
Pittsburgh is putting in work in the attacking zone. The Sidney Crosby-led Penguins have hit double-digit high-danger chances in five of their past seven, averaging 12.3 opportunities per game. Still, their output doesn’t match that performance. Pittsburgh is five goals shy of its expected total, and we should start to see meaningful progress as actual metrics balance with projections.
Columbus is in a similar position. The Blue Jackets have been buzzing in their opponents' end lately, attempting 13 or more high-danger chances in four of their last five. However, that doesn’t absolve them of their defensive miscues. They give up the eighth-most high-danger chance per game, with four of the Jackets’ last seven opponents recording at least 10 such chances.
Both offenses will be permitted to move freely in the attacking zone. Moreover, the Pens and Jackets are both projected to see an increase in scoring. As implied by the betting odds, that should result in a high-scoring affair.
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