3 NBA Star Player Prop Bets for Thursday 2/29/24
Player props are a fun way to get involved with the NBA each night, especially when it comes to the game's elite players.
That's what we'll focus on here -- prop bets for the NBA's best players via FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA Star Player Props.
Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
NBA Prop Picks
Nikola Jokic Under 9.5 Assists (-125)
Nikola Jokic has been on an absolute heater as of late, recording a triple-double in four straight games. I think that streak ends tonight.
The Miami Heat will visit the Denver Nuggets for a rematch of last season's NBA Finals battle.
A slate-low 213.5 over/under doesn't echo hope for a high-scoring contest, and it seems Jokic's assist numbers could take the brunt of this beating.
The Nuggets play at the league's fourth-slowest pace, but the Heat have them beat. Not only does Miami play at the third-slowest pace, but they also come in with the seventh-best defensive rating in basketball.
Miami isn't allowing their opposition to dish out many dimes, either. On the season, this team has surrendered the 17th-fewest assists per game. But they've tightened up as of late, ceding the 11th-fewest assists per game across their last 20 contests.
Historically, Jokic doesn't fare well against teams that come in with a solid defensive rating, play at a slow pace, and let up a small portion of dimes.
Jokic has participated in 11 contests against teams that rank in the top 15 of defensive rating and the bottom 15 of pace, who also do not rank in the top 12 of assists allowed each game.
In this split, Jokic is averaging just 7.3 assists and recorded under 9.5 assists in 8 out of 11 games.
Tonight's game will be the second leg of a back-to-back for Denver. This season, Jokic has played 10 games in this split. He dished out fewer than 9.5 dimes in 7 out of 10 of those battles, averaging 9.0 assists in that span.
It's never fun to bet against the Joker, but as his assist production is concerned, this looks to be a tough game environment.
Victor Wembanyama Under 22.5 Points (-108)
A date between the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder will pit the league's top rookies -- Chet Holmgren and Victor Wembanyama -- against each other.
As the Rookie of the Year race goes, Wembanyama (-700) holds a major lead over Holmgren (+600; second-shortest odds), but I think the market may be overstating Wemby's scoring potential tonight.
On the season, Wemby is averaging 20.6 points per game. He has scored under 22.5 points in 66.0% of his games, but these -108 odds imply just a 51.9% probability.
The value of this prop is solid and so is this matchup.
Oklahoma City's defense doesn't mess around. They come into the night boasting the NBA's fourth-best defensive rating.
As you could probably guess, Wemby scores the majority of his points (47.8%) in the paint. But OKC touts one of the best interior defenses in basketball, letting up the third-fewest (tied) paint points each game.
For a big man, Wembanyama loves to shoot threes, as he nets 23.1% of his points from behind the arc. However, the Thunder surrender the eighth-fewest three-point makes (3PM) to centers.
Add in that OKC grants just the sixth-fewest free-throw attempts to opposing centers, while Wemby scores 19.2% of his points from the foul line, and the scoring potential doesn't seem particularly fruitful in this one.
FanDuel Research's projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- anticipate Wemby to score 21.4 points tonight.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 30.5 Points (-118)
Let's stick with the same game and look for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to have an average scoring performance.
SGA is accumulating 31.2 points per game this season. He has eclipsed 30.5 points in 68.4% of his games, so the fact that these -118 odds imply just a 54.1% probability indicates value.
To put it lightly, the Spurs do not have a good defense.
They allow the second-most points per game to point guards, as well as the fifth-most paint points to guards per 36 minutes.
SGA scores 48.7% of his points in the paint, so he could have a field day when driving the ball to the hoop tonight.
Further, San Antonio gives up the fourth-most points to ball handlers off of pick-and-rolls, and SGA scores the ninth-most points in the NBA in this scenario.
For how sacrificial this Spurs team is, they've managed to surrender the 13th-fewest three-point attempts (3PA) each night.
This is good news for SGA. Although he leads the Thunder in field goal attempts by a wide margin, he ranks just fourth on the team in 3PA per game. The less focus on three-point shooting for the Thunder, the better for SGA.
Let's address the elephant in the room. The Thunder, who hold the third-best record in the NBA, are the rightful 11.0-point favorites in this one. This game reeks of a blowout, and it might not help that in two prior meetups this season, OKC won by 26 and 36 points.
But I still think SGA can get the better of the Spurs before any blowout-induced minutes restriction. For starters, OKC is playing on the road, and they struggle with a 17-11 away record.
Plus, SGA is a very efficient scorer. He is scoring 0.90 points per minute and 0.95 points per minute against San Antonio this season. If he comes out with the same efficiency that he did against this fast-paced, poor defensive squad earlier in the season, he would need to play just 32.6 minutes to score over 30.5 points.
Our projections have SGA playing 34.16 minutes tonight, so I'm happy to side with him in what should be an ultra-friendly scoring environment.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.