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3 NBA Player Prop Picks for Monday 11/18/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33

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3 NBA Player Prop Picks for Monday 11/18/24

The beauty of the NBA is you will never be short on prop-betting options for a given slate.

From points to steals and three-pointers, FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA odds are overflowing with possibilities. We're here to help you sift through it all.

Using FanDuel Research's daily NBA projections as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing on FanDuel.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Best NBA Player Props Today

Chicago Bulls at Detroit Pistons

Josh Giddey Over 22.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-104)

Josh Giddey is averaging 24.9 combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) for the Chicago Bulls. He's exceeded 22.5 PRA in 71.4% of games (10 out of 14 contests) yet these -104 odds imply just a 50.9% probability. It seems Giddey is undervalued in the PRA market and he'll draw a decent matchup against the Detroit Pistons tonight.

Giddey has been limited to 18 minutes per his last two games due to blowouts. The Bulls have dropped those games by 18 and 36 points. The Pistons are favored by only 4.5 points tonight, so we should have a close one on our hands. That puts Giddey in a great spot as he is averaging 27.2 PRA in 10 games that were decided by fewer than 18 points.

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The Bulls are playing at the fastest pace in the league. The Pistons, meanwhile, rank 12th in pace across their last eight games. In turn, this contest features a meaty 233.5 over/under, tied for the second-highest on Monday's slate.

Giddey is underperforming his three-year averages in shooting percentage and rebound conversion, so he could see some positive regression in those stat categories. Our NBA projections are well above market. They expect Giddey to tally 26.2 PRA in this matchup.

Atlanta Hawks at Sacramento Kings

Trae Young Over 34.5 Pts + Ast (-118)

An Atlanta Hawks-Sacramento Kings meeting lays a friendly foundation for player props. The Kings are favored by only 5.0 points in a contest that is showing a slate-high 236.0 over/under.

Enter Trae Young, a player who could wreak havoc on the stat sheet. Young is netting 34.7 combined points and assists (PA) this season. In nine games where he shot 28% from the field or higher, he is averaging a massive 43.6 PA. So, beyond games where Trae had an awful shooting night, he is clearing this prop handily.

The Kings pose as an ideal matchup. They're letting up the third-most three-point attempts (3PA) and the second-most three-point makes (3PM) in the NBA. Young nets 41.6% of his points from downtown and has thrown up double-digit trio attempts in half of his games this year. He's attempted as many as 14 threes in one game this season, and we could see him meet -- or even extend -- that shot volume ceiling in this soft matchup.

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Sacramento is allowing the 10th-most points and assists to opposing guards. The Kings and Hawks met up earlier this month, and Young managed 37 PA (25 points and 12 assists) despite going a meh 38.1% from the field and 33.3% from downtown. It's pretty easy to love this matchup for Trae, and our projections forecast him to go for 36.4 PA.

Orlando Magic at Phoenix Suns

Franz Wagner Under 39.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-120)

Paolo Banchero (oblique) has missed the entire month of November for the Orlando Magic, opening the door for Franz Wagner to put up huge numbers. However, I think the market may have overreacted.

Before Banchero's injury, Wagner was averaging 25.4 PRA. In nine games sans Banchero, Wagner is netting 36.6 PRA. It's clear that Franz has gotten a monster bump, but asking him to eclipse 39.5 PRA is a tall task, especially in this matchup against the Phoenix Suns.

The Suns rank 22nd in pace and own the 14th-best defensive rating. The Magic also play at a slow pace (18th) and tout the league's second-best defensive rating. In turn, this game is showing a mere 211.0 over/under, the lowest on today's slate.

That's bad news for Wagner, who has benefitted from soft matchups as of late. He's played six straight games against teams that fare in the bottom 11 of defensive rating. In three Banchero-less games that were against groups who rank in the top 15 of defensive rating, Wagner posted 31, 25, and 28 PRA.

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Wagner is averaging under 39.5 PRA without Banchero (36.6 PRA) all while encountering a bunch of soft matchups. Now that he's playing a solid team in a game that is afforded just a 211.0 total, I have a hard time believing he can crack 40 PRA. Our projections have him down for just 34.4 PRA in this one.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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