3 NBA Best Bets and Predictions for Wednesday 1/15/25

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and NBA game projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NBA Betting Picks

Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors

Celtics Under 122.5 Points (-115)

The Boston Celtics have the league's second-best offensive rating while the Toronto Raptors have the fourth-worst defensive rating. Despite the potential advantage, the Celtics' 122.5 team total feels too high. Boston has gone over this number only twice over the last 10 games. Plus, its season-long average is a shade under this number at 118.0 points per game (fifth-most).

This total could be failing to account for the Celtics' pace of play as they sport the seventh-slowest adjusted pace.

This is paired with Boston averaging the fewest fast break points per game. While the Raptors have the ninth-quickest adjusted pace along with the third-most fast break points per contest, the Celtics surrender the eighth-fewest fast break points per game. It's unlikely that either team is getting out and running, especially when Boston averages the fewest turnovers per game (12.0). If the Celtics are controlling the possession battle, they will likely slow it down.

Why wouldn't Boston do just that? It touts the eighth-highest effective field goal percentage (eFG%) compared to Toronto's ninth-lowest mark. The Celtics will want to avoid gifting more attempts to the Raptors as Boston is clearly the more efficient squad.

A couple of projection models are predicting the same idea, for numberFire's NBA game projections has the Celtics logging 118.9 points compared to DRatings projecting a 119.2-point total.

Dallas Mavericks at New Orleans Pelicans

Pelicans Moneyline (+118)

The New Orleans Pelicans have quickly become a nice trend to ride as they've covered three consecutive games and five of the past seven. Against the Dallas Mavericks, the Pels are only 2.5-point underdogs at home. While Luka Doncic (calf) is not expected to go, this still shows the market is beginning to take New Orleans seriously.

If I'm backing the Pelicans to cover +2.5, I'm confident enough in the moneyline for improved odds (+118). On offense, New Orleans carries the 12th-highest shot distribution around the rim (per Dunks & Threes). Dallas rim protector Dereck Lively exited Tuesday's contest with an ankle sprain and is now listed as day-to-day. If Lively cannot go with his 109.7 defensive rating, the Mavericks' interior defense should become a lot more susceptible.

Dallas already surrenders the seventh-most points in the paint per game, as well. Opponents log the 15th-lowest shot distribution around the rim compared to the 3rd-lowest mark for threes against the Mavs' defense. Attacking the rim is clearly the way to attack Dallas, and this goes right along with the Pels' plan as they attempt the seventh-fewest threes per game.

The recent play of Trey Murphy III has elevated New Orleans, for he's logging 26.0 PPG while shooting 45.5% from the field and 40.3% from three over his previous six outings. Following back-to-back 30+ outings, Murphy will pose a problem, especially when the Mavericks' Naji Marshall will likely draw the assignment (a meh 113.2 defensive rating). Standing at 6-foot-6, Marshall gives up some size against the 6-foot-8 Murphy -- who has a 7-foot wingspan.

During Doncic's 10-game absence, Dallas is averaging only 108.0 PPG compared to its season-long average of 115.6 PPG. Between injuries for the Mavs and the Pelicans finally finding its wings, I'm taking New Orleans as the underdog for the second consecutive night. It worked on Tuesday -- let's ride the trend until the wheels fall off.

Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves

Timberwolves -6 (-114)

The injury bug has bit the Golden State Warriors as Brandin Podziemski (abdominal) and Jonathan Kuminga (ankle) are out, Draymond Green (illness) and Kyle Anderson (hamstring) are questionable, and Trayce Jackson-Davis (thumb) and Gary Payton II (calf) are probable.

Focusing on the injuries of Kuminga, Green, Anderson, and Jackson-Davis, Golden State could be without nearly its entire frontcourt rotation. Fortunately, Jackson-Davis is trending toward playing, but we could see the Warriors minus Kuminga, Green, and Anderson against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Kuminga (110.7 defensive rating) and Anderson (109.7 defensive rating) are some of the best interior defenders for the Warriors.

Minnesota has the 10th-lowest shot distribution around the rim. If the Wolves are given more easy looks in the painted area, this team only becomes more difficult to defend considering their third-highest three-point shot distribution while attempting the seventh-most shots from beyond the arc per game. Golden State's strength on defense has been the interior, sporting the 2nd-lowest shot distribution allowed around the rim compared to the 16th-lowest mark for defending threes.

The Timberwolves should get their fair share of looks from deep, and they're shooting 39.2% from three over the past two contests. Plus, Minnesota is giving up the fourth-fewest three-point makes and ninth-fewest three-point shots per game. That always holds weight against the Warriors' three-point attack, which is logging 41.5 shots per contest (fourth-most).

There's a solid chance that the T-Wolves beat Golden State at its own game -- shooting the three-ball. Pair that with injuries in the Warriors front court and we're looking at a potential cover for Minnesota. numberFire already has the Wolves winning by about 5.8 points, and this can often fails to account for injuries.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.