3 NBA Best Bets and Predictions for Tuesday 12/3/24
The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.
However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and NBA game projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.
While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
Today's Best NBA Betting Picks
Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons
Bucks -4 (-110)
The Milwaukee Bucks have hit their stride by going 8-2 over the last 10 games as they look to extend their six-game winning streak tonight against the Detroit Pistons. The Pistons have finally shown some improvement early in the season at 9-13; they reached only 14 wins a season ago. However, Detroit is showing signs of its former self with a 2-5 record over the last seven contests while going 1-6 against the spread (ATS).
During the hot streak, Milwaukee has been deadly from deep by shooting 44.3% from three during the span. The Bucks have even shot at least 40.0% from three-point land in six of their past eight contests. The Pistons will likely look to slow this game down with the Association's eighth-slowest pace. However, Detroit is still giving up the 12th-most field goal attempts per game while opponents shoot 36.6% from beyond the arc (11th-highest for defense).
Each team is in the top 10 of defensive rebounding percentage, which could help this game speed up a bit as the Bucks have the 15th-quickest pace of play. But what could really determine this game is the Pistons' offense, which has the 7th-worst offensive rating compared to Milwaukee sporting the 12th-best mark. None of Detroit's shot distributions draw much attention as it is around the middle of the league in shot distribution at the rim, from midrange, and from three-point land.
Both squads are also in the bottom half of points in the paint per game. With each team in the top half of three-point makes per contest, this could come down to the three-ball. Considering the Bucks' blazing 44.3% mark over the last six, Milwaukee is the team to back in this one.
numberFire's game projections have the Bucks winning 119.4-113.3, giving us another check mark for Milwaukee -4 (-110).
Orlando Magic at New York Knicks
Under 215 Points (-110)
Two of the slowest tempos in the NBA meet on Tuesday as the Orlando Magic hold the fifth-slowest pace compared to the New York Knicks carrying the second-slowest tempo. With that said, it's no wonder the total sits at only 215 points.
While the Magic own the third-best defensive rating, the Knicks sporting the ninth-worst defensive rating gives some hesitance for the under. However, each defense is excelling in the ideal areas to slow the opposing offense.
For example, Orlando is mostly a threat to score around the rim by carrying the fifth-highest shot distribution around the rim, per Dunks & Threes. While they also hold the ninth-highest shot distribution from three, New York would likely be just fine with the Magic shooting due to their dreadful 31.7% mark from three (the lowest). Fortunately, the Knicks' interior defense has been rock solid by limiting opponents to the 11th-fewest points in the paint per game and 8th-lowest shot distribution around the rim.
On the other side of the court, Orlando's defense has simply been excellent. The Magic allow only 102.3 points per game (the fewest) paired with a 52.6% effective field goal percentage allowed (sixth-lowest). Orlando also gives up the fourth-lowest shot distribution from three, which should limit New York's 39.3% three-point percentage (second-highest). Additionally, opponents total only 42.7 points in the paint per game (2nd-fewest) against the Magic, which should help offset the Knicks' 10th-most points in the paint per game.
Each defense seems to be shining in the correct categories for this matchup. Give me a low-scoring contest with the under hitting.
Houston Rockets at Sacramento Kings
Rockets Moneyline (+100)
The Houston Rockets continue to be a big-time winner, carrying an 8-2 record and 9-1 record against the spread (ATS) over the past 10. They are now 15-6 ATS on the season. Tuesday's matchup carries a one-point spread in favor of the Sacramento Kings. The Rockets are 3-1 straight up and 4-0 ATS over their previous four away games, and the Kings are 3-7 and 2-8 ATS over the last 10 and have lost three consecutive games at home.
We have more than just trends, though. Let's dive into some potential advantages for H-Town.
Perhaps the Kings' best attributes have been winning the rebounding battle and painted area, for they hold the 3rd-highest defensive rebounding percentage, average the 16th-most points in the paint per game, and limit opponents to the 3rd-fewest points in the paint per contest. Houston has the answers, though, sitting in the top 10 of offensive and defensive rebounding percentages while scoring the ninth-most points in the paint per contest and surrendering the fourth-fewest points in the paint per game.
The Rockets also look to dominate the boards and paint, and they do it even better than Sacramento. Each team is in the bottom seven of three-point percentage, giving even more weight to the battle in the paint.
Houston holding the 2nd-highest offensive rebounding rate compared to the Kings' 14th-lowest percentage could prove to be the key of this bout. Considering the Rockets sport better marks on the glass and in the painted area, Houston should be a great bet yet again.
DRatings' game predictions have a 113.5-111.7 final in favor of the Rockets. If correct, the model carries a 54.5% probability for Houston to win outright; the current +100 moneyline odds holds only a 50.0% implied probability.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.