3 NBA Best Bets and Predictions for Thursday 1/9/25

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and NBA game projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NBA Betting Picks

Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers

Cavaliers Over 125.5 Points (-118)

After taking down numberFire's second-best team in nERD-based power rankings on Wednesday, the Cleveland Cavaliers get a much more favorable matchup tonight against the Toronto Raptors, who ranks 27th in the power rankings. As numberFire's top-rated team, Cleveland is a big-time 15.5-point favorite for tonight's game.

While I'm hesitant in backing such a larger number, we have an avenue for value elsewhere. Toronto has the fourth-worst defensive rating compared to the Cavaliers boasting the Association's top offensive rating. Cleveland's team total is sky high at 125.5 points, but I still believe the over should be in play.

The Cavs just logged 129 points while shooting 52.2% from the floor against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who have the league's best defensive rating. This was with Donovan Mitchell having an off night, too, posting only 11 points paired with an 18.8% field goal percentage (FG%). Cleveland was able to attack in any which way against the Thunder, stacking 60 points in the paint while draining 15 of 36 three-pointers (41.7%).

On Thursday night, the Cavaliers should have their pick yet again. The Raptors give up the sixth-most points in the paint per game and the eighth-most three-point attempts per contest. According to Dunks & Threes, Toronto also allows the ninth-highest shot distribution around the rim and the seventh-highest three-point shot distribution.

The pace of play shouldn't cause too much worry either, for the Raptors play at the eighth-quickest adjusted pace compared to Cleveland carrying the sixth-quickest mark. Each squad is in the top half of field goal attempts and fast break points per game.

After averaging 126.6 points per game (PPG) over the last 10 games, the Cavs have more than enough offense to make this over happen against one of the NBA's worst defenses.

Houston Rockets at Memphis Grizzlies

Rockets Moneyline (-110)

DRatings' game projections has the Houston Rockets winning by about two points on the road against the Memphis Grizzlies. Models often fail to recognize injuries, and Memphis' Ja Morant (shoulder), Jaren Jackson Jr. (leg), Desmond Bane (ankle), and Santi Aldama (ankle) are all questionable. That's the Grizzlies' top four scorers, and Morant (31.9%), Jackson (29.4%), and Bane (23.3%) lead the squad in usage rates.

Houston already excels on the defensive end with the third-best rating. If Memphis is without its best scoring options, putting points on the board should be a major challenge. On the flip side, the Rockets are mostly healthy and allow the sixth-fewest points in the paint per game and the second-fewest three-point makes and attempts per contest.

The tempo of this game should hold weight, too, for Houston plays at the 11th-slowest adjusted tempo compared to the Grizz's quickest pace. Controlling the possession battle via rebounds will likely alter this, and Houston is slightly better with the highest offensive rebounding percentage and 12th-highest defensive rebounding percentage. Memphis sports the 2nd-highest offensive rebounding rate and 16th-highest defensive rebounding percentage.

Of course, no Jackson and/or Aldama would be big losses for the Grizzlies' rebounding. The two forwards are in the top three of rebounds per game (RPG) on the team, giving way for the Rockets to control the possession and pace battles.

Ultimately, these teams are viewed pretty darn close as Memphis ranks fourth compared to Houston as sixth in numberFire's power rankings. If Memphis is without as many as four key players, taking the Rockets feels like an easy pick.

Portland Trail Blazers at Dallas Mavericks

Trail Blazers +7.5 (-108)

The Portland Trail Blazers have managed to find some success in the new year, going 2-1 and 3-0 against the spread (ATS) over the last three games. They will face one of the best teams in the Western Conference tonight, but the Dallas Mavericks will be minus Luka Doncic (calf), Kyrie Irving (back), and Daniel Gafford (ankle) is questionable.

Despite the notable injuries, the Trail Blazers are still 7.5-point underdogs. There's some value in a cover considering Portland's recent level of play.

The Mavericks total the ninth-most points in the paint per game, and attacking the rim will likely play an even larger factor as Luka and Kyrie are in the top three on the team in three-point attempts per game. By surrendering the 12th-fewest points in the paint per game, I like the Blazers' chances on defense. Much of this hinges on Donovan Clingan (rest) and Robert Williams (ankle) as they're listed as day-to-day. After missing Wednesday's game from rest, Clingan will likely play and he contributes a team-best 112.4 defensive rating among qualifying players.

With Clingan in the rotation, Dallas' ability to attack the rim should go down. Plus, Portland already holds opponents to the 13th-lowest three-point shot distribution and 13th-fewest three-point attempts per game, potentially limiting the Mavs' next-best scorers behind Doncic and Irving -- Klay Thompson and PJ Washington.

On the other end of the court, the Trail Blazers have the third-highest shot distribution around the rim. Dallas allows the highest shot distribution around the rim (13th-highest) compared to the mid range and three-point shots.

The bottom line: Portland has several angles for keeping this close, which mainly includes controlling the paint battle. Give me the Blazers to cover against a thin Mavericks rotation.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.