3 NBA Best Bets and Predictions for Friday 12/27/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and NBA game projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NBA Betting Picks

Pacers at Celtics

Over 231.5 (-104)

The Indiana Pacers are on the second leg of what can only be described as a gauntlet of a back-to-back. After dropping a home 120-114 affair to the Oklahoma City Thunder, Indiana heads east to take on the Boston Celtics.

Boston has the fourth-best net rating (+9.1) in basketball, but the Pacers played them well in 2024 and already beat them once this season. Given that, it's difficult to pin down which side might cover tonight, but I do see value in the over.

The first Celtics-Pacers matchup totaled 267 points (248 in regulation). Last year, the five regular season meetings averaged 245.8 points, with four of them clearing 231.5. In their four-game playoff series, two games went over 231.5, and the average total was 232.3.

That head-to-head history bodes well for a high-scoring game tonight, especially given how fast the Pacers play. Indiana is seventh in pace on the season and ninth in the month of December. The Celtics are just 20th in pace for the year but have jumped to 11th this month.

Boston's offensive efficiency has remained steady, too. The Celtics are ninth in offensive rating and 12th in scoring this month. Indiana is 11th in both offensive rating and scoring over that same stretch.

And while the Celtics feature a top-10 scoring defense, the Pacers have given up the ninth-most points per game.

numberFire's NBA game projections project 233.2 total points in this one, slightly above tonight's total. Considering how many high-scoring games these sides have gotten into over the last two seasons, I'm happy to back the model and take over 231.5 total points.

Cavaliers at Nuggets

Nuggets Moneyline (+126)

Arguably the game of the night tips off at 9:10 p.m. ET when the Cleveland Cavaliers take on the Denver Nuggets. Cleveland has raced out to a 26-4 start while Denver has limped to a 16-12 mark a third of the way through the season. Even so, it's a bit surprising to see the Cavs favored on the road tonight, especially considering these two teams share equal +1700 odds to win the NBA Championship.

That tells me the market values these teams' upside similarly, even if the early results don't reflect it. As a result, I see value with the Nuggets moneyline at +126 odds.

On paper, Cleveland has been the better team thus far. The Cavaliers are near the top of the league in offensive rating (first), defensive rating (seventh), and average point differential (second). They've lost just four games all season -- and two of them came in back-to-back games with the Atlanta Hawks. But three of their four losses have come on the road, and the Nuggets are top 10 in both offensive rating (sixth) and net rating (+2.8) at home.

The Nuggets have shot the three-ball much better at home, posting a 37.6% mark from deep in Denver compared to 35.6% on the road. We saw how that impacted things the first time these two squads matched up earlier this month. The Cavaliers nailed 22 threes at a 46% clip in their 126-114 home win against the Nuggets; Denver made just 6 threes on 25% shooting from deep.

Denver dominated the paint in their first matchup, outscoring Cleveland 76 to 40 inside, but they're going to have to shoot the three better today to beat the Cavs. In all four of Cleveland's losses, the opposing team made at least 14 threes and shot better than 40% from beyond the arc.

That's very in play at home for the Nuggets. Denver has made at least 14 threes and shot 40% from distance in six of 12 home games to start the year. They're averaging 13.2 made threes at home, compared to 10.5 on the road.

I'm banking on the home side getting some positive shooting regression tonight, and it helps that the numberFire projections view Denver in a similar fashion. numberFire projects the Nuggets to win by 1.9 points -- enough for me to back the Nuggets' moneyline at +126 odds.

Mavericks at Suns

Suns Moneyline (-108)

The Dallas Mavericks hit the road for tonight's date with the Phoenix Suns in a would-be rivalry game missing Luka Doncic (calf) and Devin Booker (groin). Even so, there's plenty of star power on both sides, although the loss of Doncic appears much bigger than Booker. But that's not reflected in the Mavericks-Suns odds as this game is essentially a pick'em.

In what's expected to be a tight game, I like the home Suns to come out ahead.

Phoenix has gone just 1-2 without Booker this season, including a loss to the Detroit Pistons. But they still put up 125 points in that loss to Detroit and most recently bounced back to beat Denver on Christmas Day.

Dallas has fared well without Doncic this season. They're 6-2 without him in the lineup, notably defeating Oklahoma City, Denver, and New York under such circumstances.

Even so, I'm hard-pressed to believe losing your team leader in plus/minus (Doncic is +168 across 22 games) makes you a better team in the long haul. They went 4-8 without Doncic in 2023-24, after all. And the Mavs' offense has taken a big hit without Luka this season; Dallas averages 7.4 fewer points per 100 possessions sans Doncic, according to PBP Stats. Their defensive efficiency hardly changes without him.

The Suns also see a downtick in points per 100 possessions without Booker, but it's less dramatic and is compensated for by an uptick on defense.

With Book and Luka sidelined, Phoenix will have the best player on the floor tonight -- Kevin Durant. That's enough for me to back the Suns, especially with how well they've played Dallas this season. Phoenix is 2-0 against the Mavs, including a 12-point home win early in the year.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.