3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays for Thursday 7/27/23
Finding low-salary production is one way to get a leg up on the competition in MLB DFS.
Here are some low-salary players to target on FanDuel for tonight's main slate.
Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.
Tommy Pham, OF, New York Mets ($2,800)
This hasn't been the season the New York Mets had hoped for, but Tommy Pham has been a nice surprise.
Pham has been having a renaissance season at age 35, with his best wRC+ (125) since 2018. He also owns the best expected wOBA (xwOBA) of his career at .390. He typically has been more effective with the platoon advantage, but his .344 wOBA and 122 wRC+ against righties this season puts him in play in righty-righty spots.
The Mets are taking on the Washington Nationals, and Josiah Gray will be on the mound. Gray has improved a lot this year but still has an expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) that's rather high (4.83).
New York has the highest implied team total on this small slate (5.12). Pham is the best point-per-dollar hitter by numberFire's model, and he makes sense in all lineup builds tonight.
Dylan Carlson, OF, St. Louis Cardinals ($2,600)
Dylan Carlson isn't the most exciting player to roster, but he checks a lot of boxes tonight.
Against southpaws, Carlson has sometimes been the leadoff hitter for the St. Louis Cardinals this season, and he has a career-high xwOBA of .337. He has the advantage of being a switch-hitter. Tonight, he'll start off batting from the right side of the plate, which is his better side. He has a .357 wOBA and 128 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season.
He'll face off against Justin Steele of the Chicago Cubs. While Steele is having a fine year, the Cards have an implied team total of 4.84 runs tonight, so they are expected to have some success against Steele and the Cubs' bullpen.
There are only six teams on this slate, so getting one of the leadoff hitters with the platoon advantage for just $2,600 is a nice value addition to lineups.
Seiya Suzuki, OF, Chicago Cubs ($2,800)
Outfield has a lot of value tonight and not many studs that we'll want to use salary on for this three-game slate. Seiya Suzuki is another value play we can use in the outfield.
Suzuki doesn't have the most impressive numbers, but a .323 wOBA is respectable. He makes a lot of hard contact, sporting a 49.4% hard-hit rate. A problem he has is that he is striking out a bit too much -- 25.1% of the time. That shouldn't be much of an issue in this matchup.
The Cubs will face Miles Mikolas in this game. Mikolas is having the worst season of his career, with a 4.67 xFIP. He's really struggled to strike out batters, showing just a 15.8% strikeout rate and a 6.8% swinging-strike rate.
Chicago is an underdog in this game but is still expected to do some damage on offense. They have a healthy implied team total of 4.66 runs. Suzuki should get a nice spot in the batting order, likely fifth, making him a bat to target in Cubs stacks tonight.
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