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3 MLB Best Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Mets at Dodgers, Game 6

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3

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3 MLB Best Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Mets at Dodgers, Game 6

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to player props to home runs, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's MLB predictions and FanDuel Research's MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers

Under 8.5 Runs (-108)
Mets +0.5 in First 5 Innings (-118)

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Scoring is typically reduced in MLB's postseason, but don't tell the New York Mets or Los Angeles Dodgers. They've averaged 11.4 runs per game with at least eight in each tilt.

These teams are well overdue for a low-scoring contest, and today's pitching matchup could provide it.

It's business as usual for the Mets with Sean Manaea taking his turn in the rotation. Manaea has been extremely effective behind a 3.53 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and 24.6% K rate in the postseason, going at least five innings with two or fewer earned runs allowed in each of three starts.

The Dodgers are going with a bullpen game, and their bullpen has been significantly more trustworthy than the group that finished the final month of the season ranked bottom 10 by SIERA. They're managed a 4.16 SIERA in October.

numberFire expects just 7.83 total runs in tonight's game, forecasting the under to cash at a 56.4% clip.

Additionally, New York would need just a single run in the first five innings to come through on their first-five run line if Manaea's stat line trends hold, so I'll tack on that bet with the under in a game that -- obviously -- means more to the side facing elimination.

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Today's Best Home Run Prop Bets

Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+310)

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If picking an individual hitter in this series to go yard given Shohei Ohtani's minor struggles, I'm going to keep suggesting "The Polar Bear".

Pete Alonso roared in Game 5 as part of New York's 12-run avalanche, and he's clearly seeing the ball well at present. Alonso is rocking a .990 OPS, .325 ISO, 48.1% flyball rate, and 40.7% hard-hit rate during the playoffs -- the latter of which well above his teammate and neighbor in this market, Mark Vientos.

Though not sure of Alonso's matchup throughout this one, he's less sensitive to sides of the plate than Francisco Lindor, whose hard-hit rate against lefties dipped to 34.6% this season.

All of these factors are likely why Alonso leads FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections in expected home runs (0.32). At that median projection, we'd set Polar Bear closer to +265 for a bomb.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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