3 Daily Fantasy Baseball Stacks for Friday 7/28/23
Stacking is one of the most tried and true strategies in daily fantasy baseball. Targeting the most advantageous matchups and filling your lineup with the right offenses goes a long way toward getting into that top prize pool on FanDuel.
We've got you covered in this piece, examining the top matchups of the main slate and figuring out what stacks are worth going for. Upside is a huge part of that, although we don't want to ignore the math given baseball's variability.
Additionally, numberFire has a few key resources beyond the initial advice in this article: namely, the MLB DFS heat map and numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections.
Without further ado, let's dive into the top stacks to target for Friday's main slate which kicks off at 7:05 p.m. (EST).
Atlanta Braves
Implied Total: 5.6 | Opposing Pitcher: Adrian Houser
Today's slate has three offenses that stand ahead of the pack -- at least according to the projections. All three of the Los Angeles Dodgers, Cleveland Guardians, and Atlanta Braves have an implied team total of at least 5.6 runs tonight. While the Braves may be third on that list, they're my top stack of the night.
Atlanta hosts the Milwaukee Brewers tonight, with righty Adrian Houser toeing the rubber for the visitors. Despite a solid 3.86 ERA, Houser's underlying numbers suggest he's a pitcher worth targetting. Houser sits in the bottom 20% of the league in hard-hit rate (43.7%), strikeout rate (17.7%), and expected batting average allowed (.268). He's furthermore allowed a 32.7% fly ball rate -- something Atlanta's lineup of heavy hitters can take full advantage of.
As a team, the Braves lead the league with a 38.2% hard-hit rate, a .221 ISO, and a .350 wOBA against right-handed pitchers. With arguably the most complete lineup in baseball, they have a number of viable stack options to choose from.
Ronald Acuna ($4,600) is the most obvious option to build around. The salary is hard to swallow but with 16.24 Fanduel points per game, he's as consistent as they come -- especially in a plus matchup. For the season Acuna has a .416 wOBA against righties but in general, his Baseball savant page is just absurd.
Acuna is far from the only Braves' stud worth targeting, with Matt Olson ($4,200), Sean Murphy ($3,900), Ozzie Albies ($3,900), and Austin Riley ($3,800) all more than capable options. Of those, Olson and Murphy look the most appetizing. Both sluggers have shredded right-handed pitching this season with Olson's absurd .341 ISO really standing out.
As much as you may want to, you won't be able to throw all five of Atlanta's studs into your lineup. Thankfully, the bottom of their order can be nearly as productive. Marcell Ozuna ($2,900), Eddie Rosario ($2,700), Orlando Arcia ($2,700), and Michael Harris II ($2,900) are projected to round out the rest of their lineup tonight -- though, Travis d'Arnaud ($3,000) would be an intriguing option if he drew the start for Murphy. Harris has been blazing hot since the All-Star break, leading the team with a .459 wOBA over their last 11 games. The same can be said of Arcia, who's gotten unlucky with a .222 BABIP but has a 50% hard-hit rate since over the second half.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Implied Total: 5.66 | Opposing Pitcher: Brandon Williamson
With the highest implied team total of the slate, the Dodgers are an obvious offense to target tonight -- even against a lefty. While the Dodgers have posted a solid, but not spectacular .332 wOBA against lefties, they also lead the league with a 44.1% fly ball rate. That bodes well for their chances of fantasy success in one of baseball's most home run-friendly ballparks and against a heavy fly ball pitcher in Brandon Williamson.
Williamson has pitched better of late but he still has a subpar 5.07 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and just an 18.8% strikeout rate for the season. He gives up more than his fair of fly balls at a 44.8% clip and consequently sits in the bottom 10% of the league with a .488 expected slugging percentage allowed. That bodes well for Los Angeles' hitters, especially considering the Dodgers have averaged 6.33 runs per game since the All-Star break -- third in the MLB.
Mookie Betts ($4,300) and Freddie Freeman ($4,500) have been among the very best hitters in the league against left-handed pitchers. Both have a .436 wOBA in that split -- 10th among batters with at least 70 plate appearances. Freeman in particular has been red-hot since the All-Star break, posting a .519 wOBA and a 45.7% hard-hit rate.
Max Muncy ($4,000), J.D. Martinez ($4,000), and Will Smith ($3,700) are similarly strong options. Martinez has been tearing the cover the ball over the second half of the season, recording a 59.1% hard-hit rate over his last 43 plate appearances. He's lifted the ball with regularity over that span with a 50% fly-ball rate. Smith has really thrived against southpaws this season, posting a .412 wOBA while striking out at a measly 8.8% clip. As for Muncy, he's finally begun to break free of a prolonged cold spell, having hit four homers in his last seven outings.
Moving down the list, James Outman ($2,900), Amed Rosario ($2,800), Chris Taylor ($2,800), and Enrique Hernandez ($2,500) are all low-salary options that could benefit from the hard-hitters at the top of their lineup. Outman is definitely someone worth taking a look at as he's really picked things up since the All-Star break -- posting a .438 wOBA and four multi-hit games over his last 12 games. Rosario and Hernandez are both newcomers who could look to have a fast start with their new ballclubs. Of the two, Rosario has faired better against lefties -- against whom he owns a solid .353 wOBA and just a 13.8% strikeout rate.
Cleveland Guardians
Implied Total: 5.64 | Opposing Pitcher: Touki Toussaint
The final of today's "Big Three" offenses with an implied team total of at least 5.6 is the Cleveland Guardians. The Guardians haven't been a very relevant fantasy offense thus far, but they're averaging 5.31 runs per game since the All-Star break -- a top-10 mark in baseball. They should continue that trend tonight up against the lowly Chicago White Sox.
The White Sox are starting righty Touki Toussaint tonight. Toussaint has actually pitched pretty well since coming over to Chicago but he did give up four runs in six innings of work over his last full start. Toussaint struggles mightily with command, allowing one of the highest walk rates in the league at 16.7%. That alone could help get runs in scoring position for Cleveland, but I'm more interested in his abysmal 5.51 SIERA. While the Guardians only have a .290 wOBA against lefties for the totality of the season, they rank 12th with a .329 wOBA since July 1st.
Jose Ramirez ($4,100) is the clear top option for the Guardians tonight. The third baseman is an incredibly consistent fantasy player, averaging 12.25 fantasy points per game. While he has struggled somewhat against lefties, his 94th-percentile xBA and minuscule 9.7% strikeout rate give him an incredibly high floor of production.
Josh Naylor ($3,500) and Steven Kwan ($3,100) are both quality options, especially when paired with Ramirez. The two have been heating up of late, with both clearing the .400 wOBA mark since the All-Star break. Neither strikes out at a clip over 12%, giving them a high baseline for production.
Cleveland is especially enticing to stack because of their low salaries. Aside from Ramirez, Naylor, and Kwan, the entirety of their lineup comes in under $3,000. Andres Gimenez ($2,800), Josh Bell ($2,800), Bo Naylor ($2,600), Myles Straw ($2,400), Will Brennan ($2,400), and Tyler Freeman ($2,200) round out their lineup as low-salary options. Of that group, Bell has been the most productive of late -- posting a .380 wOBA in 11 games since the All-Star break.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.