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3 Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 14

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3 Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 14

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up in the betting market via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to measuring a player's potential to produce in NFL DFS on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our NFL projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NFL player props that look appealing for this week.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NFL Prop Picks for Week 14

Will Levis Over 235.5 Passing + Rushing Yards (-114)

Will Levis has turned the right corner since returning from a shoulder injury.

He posted 0.06 EPA (expected points added) per drop back from Week's 10 through 12 and is logging 5.5. rush attempts across his last four. He's also averaging 256.5 passing + rushing yards in this span despite facing teams that rank 4th, 5th, 7th, and 24th in schedule-adjusted pass defense. That puts him in a spot to thrive in this weekend's matchup against the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Jags struggle with the worst schedule-adjusted pass defense unit in the NFL. They're coughing up the most passing yards per game (284.0) and are forcing the fifth-fewest interceptions.

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Jacksonville is also ceding the third-most rush attempts and the third-most rushing yards to opposing QBs. Levis handled seven carries in Week 11 and eight carries in Week 12, so this friendly matchup is coinciding with Levis' recent uptick in volume.

Our NFL projections expect Levis to throw for 212.4 yards and run for 30 -- good for 242.4 total yards.

De'Von Achane Over 88.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)

The Miami Dolphins are clinging on to a sliver of playoff hope and could get the best out of De'Von Achane in this weekend's matchup versus the New York Jets.

Since Tua Tagovailoa returned from his head injury Week 8, Achane has seen a 62.9% snap rate, 17.8% target share (third-highest on the team), and is netting 24 adjusted opportunities per game. In eight total games with Tua at the helm, Achane is averaging 102 scrimmage yards and hit the century mark in five of those contests.

This week, we need Achane to log just south of 90 total yards, a manageable feat when considering his workload and matchup.

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The Jets struggle with a 24th-ranked schedule-adjusted rush defense. They allow opposing RBs to handle the fourth-most carries per game, and the Dolphins are in a good spot to enjoy a positive game script as the 5.5-point home favorites. New York is also ceding the sixth-most yards per catch to RBs, which is especially encouraging considering Achane's big-play potential in the passing game.

Here's a look at Achane's total yardage output at Hard Rock Stadium with Tua under center this season: 56, 100, 165, 147, and 104 yards. Our projections forecast him to net 94.9 scrimmage yards in this one.

George Pickens 100+ Receiving Yards (+230)

The Cleveland Browns have transformed into one of the most entertaining NFL teams to watch this season. Jameis Winston is slinging it in any and every direction while the defense has let guys like Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims, and Quentin Johnston go for 100-plus yards in the last few weeks.

Can George Pickens join that group this weekend?

Pickens' boom nature makes him one of the more logical players to back in the alternate market. He's enjoying a 27.7% target share and a massive 47.2% air yards share this season. Since Russell Wilson took over signal-calling duties, Pickens is seeing a 14.5 aDOT and is netting an impressive 2.55 yards per route run.

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The Browns come in with a 23rd-ranked pass D unit. They are no stranger to big plays, surrendering a league-high 16.36 yards per catch to WRs. Cleveland is also ceding the sixth-most receiving yards to the position.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are favored by 6.5 points in this match, but it's hard to totally put Jameis away and the Browns came out on top against Pittsburgh just two weeks ago. With such a soft matchup in store, I like Pickens' +230 odds at this alternate line.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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