3 Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 13

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up in the betting market via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to measuring a player's potential to produce in NFL DFS on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our NFL projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NFL player props that look appealing for this week.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NFL Prop Picks for Week 13

Nico Collins 100-Plus Receiving Yards (+154)

It has been far from smooth sailing for C.J. Stroud and the aerial attack of the Houston Texans this season, but this week is a perfect get-right spot for them against the Jacksonville Jaguars. With Jacksonville's defense deploying man coverage quite often, I love the alternate receiving yards market for Nico Collins.

Entering Week 13, the Jaguars are playing man coverage at the seventh-highest rate (38.1%), per NextGenStats. According to PFF, Collins leads the Texans in target rate (29.0%), yards per reception (16.8), and yards per route run (3.26) when facing man coverage this season.

Although it's been a small sample size for Collins this year, he also excelled against man coverage in 2023, notching a 34.4% target rate, 16 yards per reception, and 4.43 yards per route run versus that coverage. Additionally, Jacksonville is permitting the fourth-most receiving yards (2,019), fourth-highest catch over expected (+4.6%), and second-most yards per route run (1.86) to WRs this season.

Whenever the Texans and Jaguars squared off against each other back in Week 4, Collins tallied a season-high 151 receiving yards on 12 catches. With Collins averaging a career-best 17.4 yards per reception in 2024, he may need only six or seven catches to achieve 100-plus receiving yards on Sunday.

Aaron Jones Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

During the Minnesota Vikings' Week 12 victory over the Chicago Bears, Aaron Jones produced 100-plus rushing yards for the second time this year while tying his season-high mark in carries (22). Through 11 games as a member of the Vikings, Jones is averaging 72.5 rushing yards per game (the most he's tallied since 2020), and his workload last week could lead to him having another stellar performance in Week 13 versus the Arizona Cardinals.

For starters, the Cardinals have proven to be worse against the run than the pass, ranking 27th in schedule-adjusted run defense and 19th in schedule-adjusted pass defense. On top of that, Arizona is 31st in defensive rushing success rate (45.2%) while permitting the 14th-most yards per attempt (4.4) to RBs.

Another reason why I like Jones to hit the over on his rushing yards prop is due to the usage he received in Week 12. After logging a snap rate below 56% in each of his previous two games, Jones jumped to a 78.5% snap rate in last week's contest while handling 22 of the 25 rushing attempts by Vikings RBs.

Even though Minnesota trusts Cam Akers to spell Jones at times, they realize they'll need to feed their best back to keep pace with the Detroit Lions in the NFC North. Seeing that the Vikings are favorites at home on Sunday, there's a chance they'll be able to give Jones plenty of carries in the second half to help him reach the over.

Matthew Stafford Over 259.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Following a slow start to the season, Matthew Stafford is beginning to heat up in recent weeks, airing it out for 260-plus passing yards in five of his last seven starts. The Los Angeles Rams can't afford to lose many more games if they want to stay alive in the postseason race, and the New Orleans Saints present a fantastic matchup for the experienced signal-caller through the air.

The Saints and the Baltimore Ravens are the only teams in the league who have allowed five 300-yard passers in 2024, which makes me slightly interested in taking the alternate passing yards line for Stafford, as well. While Los Angeles has struggled in pass protection this season, Stafford should have time to survey the field on Sunday with New Orleans sitting at 27th in pressure rate (30.0%).

Amid injuries to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua earlier this year, Stafford attempted 33 passes per game in his first six starts. Meanwhile, across his previous five starts, Stafford has seen his attempts per game climb up to 37.4 while he's thrown the ball 36-plus times in three of his last four outings.

Only the Jaguars and Ravens are allowing more passing yards per game than the Saints (256.6) as they've surrendered 300-plus passing yards in each of their last two games. Given the fact that Stafford will have Kupp and Nacua available on Sunday, he should have no issues racking up passing yards in Week 13 versus New Orleans.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.