3 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for the Divisional Round

This weekend, we root for points.

When I compare my model's NFL spread and total predictions for the Divisional Round with the NFL betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, I'm seeing value in the over for all four totals.

I'm fine ignoring that for the Los Angeles Rams and the Philadelphia Eagles, especially now that the total has ticked up to 44.5. But for the other three, I agree directionally with the model. Obviously, that's going to make me a bit uncomfortable.

That discomfort is amped up by the fact that the under hit in five of six Wild Card Round games, three of which were values toward the over for me.

So, is my model projecting too many points? Are playoff games lower-scoring than what I'm predicting?

I wanted to double-check this, so I looked at the 32 total NFL playoff games for which I've had a totals model (the start of the 2022 playoffs). In those, my model has predicted an average of 47.0 points. The games themselves have averaged 47.5 points, and I've had a positive ROI in the 17 games where I've been at least 2 points off market. That's despite going 0-for-3 last weekend.

Thus, I don't think the model is over-projecting things, allowing me to fire away and bet on more points than we saw last weekend. Here are those bets I'm willing to make for this week's Divisional Round slate.

NFL Divisional Round Betting Picks

Texans at Chiefs

Total Over 41.5 (-110)

We get to watch Playoff Pat again this weekend, and the total for his game is just 41.5 points. Of the three, this if my favorite over of the weekend.

My model puts the total for the Houston Texans at the Kansas City Chiefs at 45.3 points. That's in large part due to how efficient the Chiefs were once they had NFL-caliber receivers.

DeAndre Hopkins joined the team in Week 8. From that game through Week 17, the Chiefs averaged 0.15 Adjusted Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per play. The league average was 0.09. In two games with Marquise Brown, that number was 0.25. Given how good Patrick Mahomes is, it makes sense they'd chug once he wasn't throwing to guys who should be ancillary pieces.

I do think the Texans' offense can contribute at least something, as well. The Chiefs finished the regular season 12th in numberFire's schedule-adjusted defensive rankings, and they are right in line with the Los Angeles Chargers -- whom the Texans toppled last week -- once you omit Week 18. Similar to Mahomes, C.J. Stroud has shown he can make plays in high-leverage games, and I'd expect playmaker mode to be activated Saturday afternoon.

This total's low enough where we don't need a ton to break our way for the over to hit. Thus, this is my favorite traditional-market bet of the week.

Commanders at Lions

Total Over 55.5 Points (-105)

When the Detroit Lions were in a game with a 56.5-point total in Week 18, we were on the under. That worked out with just 40 total points ultimately being scored.

This one, though, features a more efficient offense and a worse defense on the opposing side, meaning I'm willing to take the over despite an outlier-esque number.

Looking at just regular-season games, the Washington Commanders finished as numberFire's fourth-ranked offense. The Minnesota Vikings -- the Lions' opponent for that Week 18 game -- were 14th, and that doesn't include their collapse against the Rams. Defensively, the Commanders were 25th while the Vikings were 3rd.

When you combine that with the Commanders' elevated pace, my model makes this total 58.3, easily the highest it has ever projected. The Lions let up 19.6 Rushing EPA to quarterbacks during the regular season, according to Next Gen Stats, the most of any playoff team. I expect both sides to have offensive success here, setting up what should be a true fireworks show.

Ravens at Bills

Total Over 51.5 (-106)

I am relieved to show no value on the spread in this game. I want to sit back and enjoy an elite battle between Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen.

Given those two are involved, I'm fine rooting for points here, as well.

To put it simply, these two offenses are too good to make this total any lower. After Wild Card Weekend, the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills are numberFire's first- and third-ranked schedule-adjusted offenses, respectively. Both defenses have had stretches of good play, but neither is an elite-level unit that should make us tremble.

The forecast in Buffalo is fine, as well. Although the temperature is projected at just 15 degrees, wind speeds -- the thing I care more about -- are at 4 miles per hour. Mother Nature is giving us the thumbs up.

In this game, the most entertaining route is taking the over. It's also one that aligns with my numbers as I've got the total at 54.0. Sign me up in what should be a thriller.

You can also check out our latest 2024-25 NFL Playoffs printable bracket.

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Which bets stand out to you in the Divisional Round? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.