3 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Raiders at Broncos on Thursday Night Football

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.

You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for the Thursday night matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Raiders at Broncos Betting Picks on Thursday Night Football

Raiders Under 16.5 Total Points (-122)

Denver enters Thursday on a six-game winning streak and is expected to win comfortably as 9.5-point favorites over Las Vegas. However, even against the lowly Raiders, it's hard to trust the Broncos to cover a nearly double-digit spread.

Over their nine games, Denver's point differential has been 8, -1, -3, 25, 4, 2, 1, 20, and 3 -- meaning they've won by 10 or more points just twice despite their 7-2 record.

The lack of big margins of victory coincides with the Broncos' offense being inconsistent all season. They've scored over 21 points only four times, and three of those performances came versus the three worst schedule-adjusted defenses by numberFire's metrics -- the New York Giants, Cincinnati Bengals and Dallas Cowboys. Sure enough, the two wins by 20+ points were versus the Bengals (with Jake Browning at QB) and the Cowboys.

With that in mind, while Vegas certainly doesn't have a defense that's anything to write home about, I'd rather rely on Denver's defense coming through for us.

The Broncos are third in schedule-adjusted defense, owning top-four marks against both the pass and run. Their pass rush is especially lethal, as Denver boasts the league's highest pressure rate (43.5%) and sack rate (11.3%), per NFL Next Gen Stats. Even with star CB Pat Surtain II ruled out again, this is as tough a defense as they come.

Meanwhile, the Raiders are 29th in adjusted offense, which includes ranking 32nd in rush offense. Although 16.5 points is by no means a high bar to hurdle, that's the exact number of points per game Las Vegas has averaged through eight games, and this will be the best D they've faced all year. Geno Smith leads the league in interceptions (11), as well, contributing to the offense holding the second-highest turnover rate (15.5%).

Further, Vegas also just traded away wide receiver Jakobi Meyers at the deadline, and although his contributions were dwindling in the weeks before the deal, that's still the loss of a weapon on an offense lacking much punch beyond Brock Bowers.

We should expect a long day at the office for the Raiders' offense on a short week, and I like the Broncos' defense to hold them under 16.5 points.

Troy Franklin Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Troy Franklin's receiving yardage totals have fluctuated a lot from game to game due to the overall up-and-down nature of this Denver attack, but his role is one we can bank on in a plus matchup like this.

This season, Franklin has a team-high 21.1% target share and 32.9% air yards share, both marks that actually edge out Denver's No. 1 wideout Courtland Sutton. Even more encouraging, he's logged 10, 8, and 10 targets over the past three games, leading to a more robust 25.7% target share and 43.1% air yards share over that span.

Vegas ranks 23rd in schedule-adjusted defense, and they're more vulnerable versus the pass (25th) compared to the run (12th), which should further encourage Denver to utilize Franklin tonight. Against wideouts specifically, the Raiders are allowing the eighth-most yards per route run (1.75).

This line was below 40 receiving yards as recently as Wednesday, so the margin for error is getting a smidge thinner as we get closer to kickoff, but I'm still confident in Franklin hitting this over.

Michael Mayer Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

The Jakobi Meyers trade should lead to a bigger role in the passing game for tight end Michael Mayer going forward, and as is, Mayer was second on the team in target share (18.4%) and air yards share (29.4%) in Week 9 even with No. 1 TE Brock Bowers back.

Mayer's volume wasn't by accident, either, as the Raiders came out of their Week 8 bye with a new plan on offense. Last week, they went 12 personnel on 58.3% of their offensive snaps, which was easily a season-high after averaging 22.1% in their previous seven games. It wouldn't be surprising if the team was confident they could move Meyers at the deadline and were already planning on life without him.

While Meyers wasn't putting up big numbers ahead of being shipped out, he was a full-time player across seven healthy games (91.7% snap rate) and vacates a 22.4% targets share. That's a decent chunk of targets going back into the wild, and Mayer could be a big beneficiary if they continue to roll out Bowers and him together at a high frequency.

Our NFL projections forecast Mayer for 35.3 receiving yards, which would put him firmly above this modest line.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.