3 Best NBA Player Prop Bets for Thursday 12/5/24

The beauty of the NBA is you will never be short on prop-betting options for a given slate.

From points to steals and three-pointers, FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA odds are overflowing with possibilities. We're here to help you sift through it all.

Using FanDuel Research's daily NBA projections as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing on FanDuel.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Today's Best NBA Player Prop Picks

Washington Wizards at Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic Over 45.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-106)

Luka Doncic is on a heater since returning from his wrist injury. He notched 56 combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) on Sunday and followed it up with a 53 PRA outing on Tuesday.

With a day of rest under his belt and a date with the Washington Wizards inbound, Luka should dominate the box score once again.

Doncic is averaging 44.8 PRA and has cleared 45.5 PRA in 50.0% of games. Keep in mind that he's been underperforming his long-term averages in shooting efficiency, rebound conversion, and assist conversion. Doncic would be averaging 48.0 PRA if he were converting points, rebounds, and assists to the stat sheet at his long-term rates.

The Wizards enter with the second-worst defense, and they operate at the fourth-fastest pace, making them a dream matchup for just about any opponent. Luka is netting 46.7 PRA against the bottom-10 defenses. He exceeded 45.5 PRA in four out of six games in this split. Pace plays an even bigger role in his success as he's accumulating 47.9 PRA in seven contests against the 12 fastest teams in the league.

Doncic has had the privilege of playing two games against teams who -- identical to Washington -- sit in the bottom 10 of defensive rating and the top 10 of pace. In this split, Luka came through with 47 PRA and 56 PRA.

All signs point to another monster night.

The one caveat? Dallas is favored by a massive 14.5 points tonight. Blowout potential is always alive and well when any 2-17 team is involved, although the Mavericks have won just two games by more than 20 points this season and will be without one of their top defensive hustlers in Naji Marshall.

Our NBA projections -- which account for the large spread -- forecast Luka to go for 47.9 PRA against Washington.

Denver Nuggets at Cleveland Cavaliers

Donovan Mitchell Over 9.5 Reb + Ast (+112)

At first glance, I had zero interest in backing Donovan Mitchell to go over 9.5 combined rebounds and assists (RA), but a deeper dive into his matchup showed that he's in a great spot to do just that.

The Denver Nuggets are playing at the sixth-fastest pace in the league. Mitchell is averaging 11.3 RA versus the 10 quickest teams in the league while he's generating just 7.8 RA outside this split. He's exceeded 9.5 RA in five out of seven games (71.4% of contests) in this pace-up split, but these +112 odds imply just a 47.2% probability.

Denver ranks a middle-of-the-road 14th in rebound rate. Mitchell is averaging a mere 5.0 RA against teams that rank in the top 10 of rebound rate, but he's accumulating a much more voluminous 10.5 RA outside this split. He's cleared 9.5 RA in 9 out of 15 games (60.0%) against clubs outside the top 10 in rebound rate.

The kicker? This contest features a close spread (4.5) and high over/under (233.5).

This season, theCleveland Cavaliers have won seven games by 19 or more points. Uncompetitive contests have kept Mitchell off the court late in games, but we should be in for a close one against the Nuggets. Here's a look at Mitchell's RA output in Cleveland's last five games that were decided by fewer than 10 points: 10, 11, 11, 22, and 10 RA.

Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors

Brandin Podziemski Over 22.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-108)

Stephen Curry (injury management) and Draymond Green (calf) have been ruled out for tonight's Golden State Warriors game while Andrew Wiggins (ankle) is listed as questionable.

That swings the door open for Golden State's young role players to make a bigger impact than normal, and Brandin Podziemski's PRA prop stands out as a value spot.

Podziemski is averaging 16.1 PRA, a far cry from where his line is set tonight. However, in four games without Curry, he hasn't missed. He's exceeded 22.5 PRA in each of his four games sans Steph, putting up 25, 23, 28, and 27 PRA -- good for an average of 25.8 PRA. He got the same bump last season as the then-rookie accumulated 26.4 PRA through eight games without Golden State's leading man.

To add, Podziemski has been leaving some meat on the bone this year, underperforming last season's average in shooting efficiency, three-point shooting efficiency, rebound conversion, and assist conversion. Positive regression could be forthcoming.

The opposing Houston Rockets come in with the second-best defensive rating and surrender the third-fewest three-pointers per game, so I won't pretend to love the matchup. With that said, the Rockets are letting up the 12th-most points and the sixth-most rebounds per game to opposing guards. Houston (11th) and Golden State (5th) each operate at a fast pace, too, so I see enough working in Podziemski's favor tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.