3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Thursday 7/31/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Junior Caminero to Hit a Home Run (+450)

Of the probable starters on this small Thursday slate, New York Yankees right-hander Marcus Stroman owns the worst marks in all of xERA (5.55), hard-hit rate allowed (49.1%), and strikeout rate (14.9%), making him an ideal arm to attack for a home run. The Tampa Bay Rays visit Yankee Stadium for this one, too, which is the third-easiest park to hit a dinger, per Baseball Savant's park factors.

Junior Caminero leads the Rays with 27 bombs, and 21 of those have come off righties. While Caminero's barrel rate isn't as high as we would expect (11.2%), his maximum exit velocity (116.5 mph) sits in the 97th percentile, so he can really make a pitcher pay if they throw a bad pitch. He's also regularly making loud contact behind a 47.8% hard-hit rate that's in the 75th percentile.

Stroman has made just eight starts this season, and while five of the six home runs he's given up have come to lefties, he actually shows a higher xFIP (5.24) and fly-ball rate (40.5%) in same-handed matchups. This further points to this being a good opportunity for Caminero to knock one out.

Elly De La Cruz to Hit a Home Run (+300)

This Atlanta Braves-Cincinnati Reds matchup has the day's highest total (9.5), and hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park is always a great venue for home runs.

Right-hander Carlos Carrasco is making his Braves debut after being dealt away by the Yankees, and he's quite vulnerable to the long ball. Carrasco has pretty poor marks across the board, showing a 4.94 xERA, 12.1% barrel rate, 17.6% strikeout rate, and 39.6% ground-ball rate. Dating back to 2023, he's allowed 1.8 HR/9 over 225 2/3 innings.

Ideally, these home run odds creep further into the +300s, but Elly De La Cruz is easily the Reds' best power threat. He leads his squad with 18 home runs, producing a strong 12.3% barrel rate (74th percentile) and 117.4 MPH maximum exit velocity (99th percentile). The switch-hitter is a much stronger left-handed hitter, as well, hitting 13 of those dingers as a lefty behind a .230 ISO.

Jorge Polanco to Hit a Home Run (+600)

Tonight's late game is out in Seattle, which is a crummy place for home runs. This is further reflected by a slate-worst 7.5-run total.

On the bright side, this gives us some longer home run odds to play with, and Texas Rangers righty Kumar Rocker has ugly numbers in xERA (5.52), barrel rate (12.3%), and hard-hit rate (47.1%) -- all of which fall below the 10th percentile.

Unsurprisingly, Cal Raleigh still has super short odds to hit a dinger (+250) despite the low total, so let's look further down the list to teammate Jorge Polanco.

While the switch-hitting Polanco doesn't have Statcast numbers that leap off the page, he's slugged 16 of his 17 home runs off right-handed pitching, sporting a .231 ISO in the split. This coincides with Rocker showing weaker marks versus lefties with a 4.83 xFIP and 16.0% K rate.

Polanco has been hot and cold this season, but he's wrapping up a strong July that featured a 153 wRC+ and .288 ISO with 6 homers, including a dinger just yesterday. At such long odds, this looks like a great spot to see if he can finish the month off with a bang.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.