3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Tuesday 7/22/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Under 3.5 Runs (-106)

The Pittsburgh Pirates are averaging a league-low 3.3 runs per game and have scored under 3.5 runs in a brutal 61.4% of contests (62 out of 101 games). The -106 odds on the under imply only a 51.4% probability and have me bullish on fading the offense on Tuesday.

Casey Mize will toe the rubber for the Detroit Tigers. He comes out of the break with a 3.15 ERA, 3.29 expected ERA, and 4.02 xFIP -- marks that earned him a 2025 All-Star selection. Notably, Mize has tossed five-plus innings while giving up two runs or fewer in 11 of 16 starts.

The Pirates' active roster sports a .109 ISO (30th), .293 wOBA (29th), 84 wRC+ (29th), and 23.6% strikeout rate (third-highest) versus right-handed pitchers. Thus, we can look for Mize to fly through the batting order in this one.

Past Mize, the Tigers will call on a bullpen that owns a 3.86 xFIP (12th-best). The combined efforts of Mize and the 'pen have limited opponents to under 3.5 runs in more games (9) than not (7) this season. Look for them to do so again tonight.

St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies

First 5 Innings Over 6.5 Runs (-114)

Tonight's match between the St. Louis Cardinals and Colorado Rockies carries a mighty 12-run over/under.

I think the majority of the damage will be done early, as both sides are sending vulnerable hurlers to the mound. With that in mind, let's look for this game to surpass 6.5 runs by the end of the fifth.

In most settings, this over would be a tall task. It's rare we even see a run total through five frames set this high. But put Erick Fedde and Bradley Blalock on the mound at the hitter-friendly Coors Field, and runs figure to be the name of the game.

Blalock has started just four games this season but he's coughed up an enormous 24 earned runs through 21 2/3 innings pitched. He gave up 12 earned runs in that infamous 21-0 San Diego Padres rout back in May. He holds a 7.57 ERA through 52 1/2 IP since making his big leagues debut a season ago, giving up 1.72 home runs per nine innings. He's got just a 9.0% strikeout rate this season and holds an 11.7% K% for his career. All to say, he's at risk of getting rocked by any professional baseball team.

Fedde might be an even stronger candidate to get cooked. He holds a 4.83 ERA that is due to regress in the wrong direction via a 5.69 xERA, 5.34 xFIP, and 5.53 SIERA. His 13.5% K% is the third-lowest among MLB hurlers who have tossed at least 90 innings this year.

Colorado averages 4.16 runs at home but just 2.94 runs on the road, a sure sign of the Coors bump. Since June, the offense holds a .446 SLG (12th-best) and .335 wOBA (12th) against righties at home. With Mickey Moniak and Hunter Goodman leading the way, the Rox could help us out big time.

Kansas City Royals at Chicago Cubs

Royals Under 3.5 Runs (-122)

The Chicago Cubs are usually in a good spot when Matt Boyd is on the mound.

Boyd touts a 2.34 ERA, 3.71 SIERA, 3.85 xFIP, and 23.2% strikeout rate. He's been especially elite at home with a 3.18 xFIP and 27.5% strikeout rate.

Behind him, the Cubs have a bullpen that sports an MLB-best 2.44 ERA. The also provide relief with a 1.09 WHIP and allow a league-low 0.62 home runs per nine innings.

As a result, it's no surprise to see Boyd owns a fantastic 10-3 record. Chicago's staff has shut out opponents in two of the last four Boyd starts, and they've held teams to under 3.5 runs in seven of his last nine outings. Will the Kansas City Royals be the next victim?

Kansas City averages 3.53 runs per game -- good for the second-fewest behind only Pittsburgh. The active roster shows just a .130 ISO (22nd) and 90 wRC+ (20th) versus LHPs. The Royals have scored under 3.5 runs in 60 out of 101 games in 2025. With that, I feel good asking Boyd and company to do what's been typical for them as of late.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.