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3 Best College Football Bets for Week 14

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3 Best College Football Bets for Week 14

Each week in college football, there are tons of games available to us.

While this can be a bit overwhelming, it also gives us plentiful spots we can target when searching for betting value. From the biggest games of the week all the way on down, we're never lacking for options.

Rivalry Week is finally here; bitter enemies with storied history will collide in the final regular-season week of college football. As if watching rivalries aren't entertaining enough, several matchups are holding postseason stakes while some teams have the chance to ruin its rival's postseason dreams. From Michigan-Ohio State to Auburn-Alabama, some of the best rivalries in sports will go down in a matter of hours.

Using the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, what are the best college football bets for this week?

All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

College Football Week 14 Betting Picks

No. 15 South Carolina Gamecocks at No. 12 Clemson Tigers

South Carolina Moneyline (+112)

The South Carolina Gamecocks and Clemson Tigers collide in an in-state battle, and a College Football Playoff berth could be on the line. According to FanDuel Sportsbook's College Football Playoff odds, the Gamecocks are +540 to make the playoffs while the Tigers hold +142 odds. Both are somewhat long shots -- more so USC -- but Week 14 is absolutely a must-win for each squad.

South Carolina has quietly won five straight games while going 4-1 against the spread (ATS). With a 8-3 ATS record compared to the Tigers' 5-6, the Gamecocks should at least be a good cover in this matchup. Clemson is 1-3 ATS over its previous four. I'm willing to take this even a step further by taking USC to win straight up.

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The Gamecocks are led by a defense that ranks eighth in EPA allowed per play and EPA allowed per drop back. That should hold a ton of weight against the Tigers who are in the top 26% in pass play rate. Clemson has seen only two teams in the top 30 of EPA allowed per drop back in Georgia and Virginia Tech. The Tigers totaled 142 passing yards and 4.9 yards per passing attempt against Georgia and 211 passing yards and 6.2 yards per passing attempt versus Va Tech. Both marks are far below Clemson's season-long averages of 7.2 yards per passing attempt and 276.1 passing yards per contest.

This is a case where the Tigers' passing attack is probably inflated by beating up on lesser competition in the ACC. South Carolina sports the best pass defense Clemson will see in the regular season, and the fear only grows thanks to the Gamecocks' third-best pass rushing grade, per Pro Football Focus. USC has the tools to bring Clemson's scoring production down, which has already fallen to 23.0 PPG in its last three games against Division I opponents (36.3 PPG on the season).

The Tigers' run defense is also nothing special, ranked 25th in EPA allowed per rushing attempt. The Gamecocks boast a 60.0% rush play rate (top 12%). I love South Carolina's chances of making this an ugly, low-scoring game, leading to an upset win.

numberFire's game projections have the Gamecocks winning 33.2-31.2 while College Football Nerds' prediction model has USC winning 28.1-17.1 (an eye-popping margin).

Michigan Wolverines at No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes

Michigan +20.5 (-108)

This season's edition of The Game doesn't have much at stake as the Michigan Wolverines carry a 6-5 record. Meanwhile, the Ohio State Buckeyes hold the shortest odds to win the Big Ten (-160) while touting the shortest odds to win the national championship (+260). Michigan could at least call this season a somewhat success if it knocks off its rival for the fourth straight season. The Buckeyes still have plenty on the line as they are looking to win to clinch an appearance in the Big Ten title game for a rematch against Oregon.

Each team impressed a week ago, for the Wolverines routed Northwestern 50-6 as 10.5-point favorites. OSU turned in a statement 38-15 win against then No. 5 Indiana. What can we expect for the 119th edition of Michigan-Ohio State?

Columbus' weather forecast is calling for temperatures in the low 30s while feeling like the high 20s with wind gusts reaching up to 20 miles per hour. There is a shot here that the passing and kicking games have a bit of trouble in The Game. If that's the case, it only bolsters my agenda for Michigan to cover the spread.

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The Wolverines are huge 20.5-point dogs, but this is a bitter rivalry where wonky things can happen; that's the beauty of Rivalry Week. Michigan has had a ton of success against OSU, covering three straight. About 59% of spread picks are also on Ohio State, and going against the public makes me feel even better about this pick.

At times, we saw Indiana find success in the run game against the Buckeyes last week; running back Ty Son Lawton finished with 79 rushing yards and 5.3 yards per carry. The Hoosiers struggled with OSU's pass rush, though, giving up five sacks. Michigan won't pull any punches and avoid the pass altogether, as seen in its 57.5% rush play rate (top 20%).

Ultimately, this game will likely feature some cold weather, favoring the under for the 43.5 total. The fewer the points, the more likely this one stays close. Plus, the Wolverines still have a talented defensive line in Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant, and Josaiah Stewart -- who are all likely headed for the NFL. A loaded defensive line could give Ohio State's beat up offensive line fits, exposing this team's biggest weakness.

numberFire has Michigan covering in a 27.1-10.2 final in favor of the Buckeyes.

No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at USC Trojans

Notre Dame -7.5 (-104)

When it comes to the late season when everything means more, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish don't exactly have the best reputation. The Irish have been rolling on a nine-game winning streak while carrying a +32.6 average margin during the span. Even better, Notre Dame hold -650 odds to make the College Football Playoff.

Surely, there's not much to worry about against the 6-5 USC Trojans, right? Since benching quarterback Miller Moss for Jayden Maiava, the Trojans are 2-0 straight up and ATS. Over Moss' final seven starts, he threw nine interceptions. Maiava has made a difference by taking care of the ball, throwing one interception to four passing touchdowns thus far. That 4.0 ratio is a much better mark than Moss' 2.0.

Staying close in the turnover battle against Notre Dame will be a major key. The Fighting Irish force 2.4 takeaways per contest (top 1%) while giving up only 0.9 turnovers per game (top 18%), leading to a +1.5 turnover margin (top 1%). USC carries a -0.2 turnover margin (bottom 42%) as the defense produces only 1.3 takeaways per game (bottom 40%). However, the Trojans have at least stayed even in the turnover battle over the last two with Maiava starting (0.0 margin).

One of the head-scratching features of USC is its refusal to lean into the run. Despite averaging 5.2 yards per carry (12%) with an exceptional back in Woody Marks (5.7 yards per rushing attempt), the Trojans still carry a 60.1% pass play rate (top 4%). This hasn't been that efficient of an air attack, either, at 7.0 yards per passing attempt (bottom 43%).

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Southern California would be smart to run the ball a bit more on Saturday, for the Golden Domers rank ninth in EPA allowed per carry compared to second in EPA allowed per drop back. However, the Trojans have essentially refused to do it all season; I doubt it begins in the final week of the regular season.

If USC continues to lean on the pass, this one should get ugly. The turnover battle could quickly get out of hand, and the Irish are in the top 30% of rush play rate while totaling 6.3 yards per rushing attempt (top 1%). The Trojans have struggled with their front seven most of the season, ranking 53rd in EPA allowed per carry.

The inability to stop the run paired with the offense heavily lean on the pass is a recipe for disaster against Notre Dame. College Football Nerds has the Fighting Irish winning 28.0-16.7. Give me Notre Dame to cover and lock up its playoff spot this weekend.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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