3 Best College Football Bets for Conference Championship Week

Conference Championship Week is here as nine conference championship games take place this week. It will be the final push for several teams attempting to crash the College Football Playoff, such as the Clemson Tigers looking to leap from their 17th-ranked spot. There are plenty of must-see matchups this weekend, including five top-25 matchups and two top-5 collisions. Who will win their conference and secure a bye for the playoff?

Using the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, what are the best college football bets for this week?

All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

College Football Conference Championship Week Betting Picks

No. 16 Iowa State Hawkeyes vs. No. 15 Arizona State Sun Devils

Arizona State -2.5 (-106)

The SEC and Big Ten conferences have pretty much dominated the top of the rankings for most of the season, but only its conference champs will get byes. With that said, the Big 12's or ACC's champion could enjoy a huge leap next week and could earn a top-four spot in the playoff. The Boise State Broncos are the only factor that could prevent both conferences from getting a bye.

The Big 12 was like the Wild West in 2024, as standings significantly shifted from week to week. The Arizona State Sun Devils controlled their own destiny by getting scorching hot, winning five consecutive games while going 5-0 against the spread (ATS). The Iowa State Cyclones bounced back from a two-game losing streak by ripping off three consecutive wins, as well.

Considering the Sun Devils are 10-2 ATS while the Cyclones hold a 7-5 ATS record, Arizona State has been the popular cover with about 81% of spread bets on the Devils. The majority of the public being on this side creates some hesitance, but the numbers still point to ASU coming out on top.

When it comes to stopping the Sun Devils' offense, it's pretty simple: stop the run.

Arizona State carries a 60.2% rush-play rate (top 10%) while logging 4.7 yards per carry (top 34%) and 195.0 rushing yards per game (top 16%). Iowa State tends to have more trouble against the run, ranking 27th in EPA allowed per rushing attempt compared to 10th in EPA allowed per drop back -- via College Football Insiders. This gets more concerning with the Cyclones surrendering 5.1 yards per carry (bottom 17%) and 173.6 rushing yards per contest (bottom 30%) while the pass defense gives up only 6.0 yards per passing attempt (top 12%).

On the other side of the ball, Iowa State features a balanced attack, sporting a 52.8% rush-play rate (top 51%) and a 47.3% pass play rate (top 49%). But the Sun Devils have a balanced defense themselves, sitting in the top 25% of yards allowed per play, yards allowed per carry, and yards allowed per passing attempt.

The turnover department is usually a key for the Cyclones as they force 1.8 turnovers per contest (top 15%) while averaging a +0.7 turnover margin (top 12%). However, ASU logs only 0.7 giveaways per contest (top 4%) and boasts a +0.9 turnover margin (top 7%).

Without winning the turnover battle, Iowa State will likely be in trouble. numberFire's college football projections have ASU winning 30.8-26.2, pointing to a close cover. The Cyclones lack the run defense to slow Cam Skattebo, who averages 127.1 rushing yards per game and has surpassed 150 yards in three of the past four. Paired with the Sun Devils to cover, Skattebo going over his 114.5 rushing yards prop is another sound bet.

No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 2 Texas Longhorns

Texas -2.5 (-115)

Grab your popcorn for the SEC and Big Ten title games as each features a top-five heavyweight battle. Starting with the SEC, we get a rematch between the Georgia Bulldogs and Texas Longhorns. Hopefully we get a more entertaining game than Georgia's 30-15 win from October.

This one could be too close to call as the Longhorns are favored by 2.5 points, and numberFire has this margin at only 4.1 points. If I had to take a side, it'd be Texas as College Football Nerds' prediction model also has the Longhorns by seven points. However, it's still difficult to ignore the Bulldogs' big win on enemy turf in Austin.

The Longhorns' offense has taken on a new identity with quarterback Quinn Ewers battling an ankle injury. Ewers has looked far less mobile while logging player grades under 65.0 in back-to-back outings, per Pro Football Focus. We could see more Arch Manning in the red zone, similar to what we saw in the final week of the regular season against Texas A&M.

Over the last three games, Texas is averaging 30.3 passing attempts and 46.0 rushing attempts per contest; that's a noticeable difference compared to its season-long averages of 33.5 passing attempts and 37.6 carries per game. The rushing attack has put up gaudy numbers over the last two, averaging 245.0 rushing yards per game and 5.1 yards per rushing attempt. Quintrevion Wisner has been like the Human Torch with 172.0 rushing yards and 5.8 yards per rushing attempt over the previous two contests.

In the Longhorns' loss to the Dawgs, Texas was forced into throwing the ball 49 times compared to 27 carries thanks to a 23-0 deficit at halftime. Keep in mind they turned it over three times in the first half; I'm not banking on Texas digging itself a hole this big on Saturday. With that said, the Longhorns should have a better shot of staying on schedule by running the rock.

Outside of its matchup with Texas, Georgia has faced only one other rushing attack in the top 10 of EPA per rushing attempt. It was a seven-point loss to Alabama as the Tide rushed for 173 yards paired with 5.4 yards per carry. The Dawgs probably won't be able to avoid a heavy dose of rushing attempts from the Longhorns this time around.

Ultimately, I trust Texas' defense more in this one as the unit is 2nd in EPA allowed per play while Georgia ranks 11th. Perhaps the biggest worry for a Texas cover will be whether Horns starting offensive tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. is active as the projected first-rounder suffered an ankle injury last week.

No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. No. 1 Oregon Ducks

Penn State +3.5 (-110)

Outside of a close win over Ohio State, the Oregon Ducks have faced only two other teams that rank in the top 35 of NET EPA, and those were comfortable wins over Washington (49-21) and Michigan (38-17). The same concern is there for the Penn State Nittany Lions as Minnesota (26-25 win), Washington (35-6), and USC (33-30) were their only opponents outside of OSU in the top 35 of NET EPA.

It's safe to say neither team has faced much playoff-caliber competition. With that said, there are some unknowns and questions surrounding this Big Ten matchup. numberFire's projections have the Ducks winning 26.6-25.7 while College Football Nerds has the final at 24.8-21.2 in favor of Oregon. This 3.5-point spread seems more than fair.

With that said, I'm siding with the underdog in this one.

The Ducks' offense has been fantastic, ranking fourth in EPA per play while logging 36.2 points per game (top 7%) and 6.7 yards per play (top 5%). The passing attack draws most of the attention by logging 8.8 yards per passing attempt (top 9%). However, I still have some questions about Oregon's pass protection (43rd in PFF's pass blocking grade).

The Ducks have faced two teams in the top 20 of PFF's pass rushing grade (Ohio State and Michigan). Neither unit found success, and Ohio State's pass rush hasn't shown near the consistency as Penn State's group. In fact, the Buckeyes usually have to blitz to put pressure on the QB, and they elected to rarely blitz when facing Oregon. The Ducks' pass protection against the Wolverines was impressive, though -- point blank, period.

Still, Nittany Lions likely first-round pick Abdul Carter causes nightmares for opposing offenses. The Ducks have not seen an edge rusher of this caliber as Carter was named the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year. Dani Dennis-Sutton is another quality edge rusher with a 72.4 pass rushing grade. When Oregon's Dillon Gabriel is pressured, his 89.0 passing grade drops to 58.9.

The turnover battle could also give the Nittany Lions an edge in this one as they average only 0.8 giveaways per game (top 13%) and force 1.4 takeaways per contest (top 44%). Their +0.6 turnover margin ranks in the top 18%. Meanwhile, the Ducks are in the bottom 33% of takeaways per contest with a +0.3 turnover margin (top 34%).

Bringing the pick home, PSU is in the top 21% of rush-play rate, and Oregon is 12th in EPA allowed per carry, compared to 5th against the pass. While James Franklin's inability to win a big game keeps me away from the moneyline, +3.5 is a key number, and the Lions can keep this within a three-point margin.

You can also check out our latest 2024-25 College Football Playoff printable bracket, which is based on the most recent committee rankings.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.