3 Best College Basketball Bets and Predictions for Wednesday 11/20/24
College basketball is back, giving us plentiful betting options with so many teams in action each day.
Fortunately, we have abundant tools available that can aid our chances of finding good betting value. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.
Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and select some of the best bets of the day by utilizing the mentioned tools.
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
Today's Best College Basketball Picks
Southern Jaguars at No. 23 Texas A&M Aggies
Under 143.5 Points (-105)
Texas A&M should roll as heavy favorites over Southern, but we might be able to get some value from targeting the under.
For starters, the Jaguars were a poor offense last season, and that's likely to be the case again. Per Bart Torvik, Southern is 302nd in adjusted offensive efficiency, and that includes ranking 350th in three-point rate, so they aren't a team that will pop with the occasional big score through hot shooting from beyond the arc.
Additionally, the Aggies are 16th in adjusted defense, and it's not like they've had a cupcake early schedule, already facing two opponents inside Bart Torvik's top 100 in UCF (67th) and Ohio State (24th).
But the icing on the cake is that this game is likely to be played at a slow pace. Texas A&M is a sluggish 302nd in adjusted tempo, and Southern won't bump that up much at 133rd.
The Aggies have gone over this total in just one of their four games, and that one over was due in part to Texas A&M shooting 46.2% from three-point range, something that shouldn't happen often for a team that's a non-elite 68th in three-point percentage.
Bart Torvik and Massey Ratings both project this game to go under 143.5 points, as well.
No. 25 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide
Illinois +8.5 (-108)
Wednesday's most intriguing game is a top-25 battle between the Fighting Illini and Crimson Tide for the C.M. Newton Classic in Birmingham, Alabama. But is Illinois not getting enough respect as 8.5-point underdogs?
Alabama has opened the season ranking fourth in adjusted offensive efficiency, and they were second in the 2023-24 campaign, so that checks out. However, they were ranked just 121st defensively last season, and it's fair to wonder if that could be an issue again, as they failed their first top-25 test last week in a road loss to Purdue, 87-78.
Of particular note, the Crimson Tide are just 333rd in defensive turnover rate, and they struggled in this department last season, too.
Illinois remains undefeated, but their three wins have all come against opponents ranked outside Bart Torvik's top 200, so Alabama will be a sizable step up in competition.
The Fighting Illini are showing encouraging signs in the early going, though. After being just inside the top 100 in adjusted defense last season, they're way up at 13th so far, and they're showing strong marks offensively in rebound rate (22nd), free-throw rate (22nd), and three-point rate (2nd).
Bart Torvik, Massey Ratings, and numberFire all project this to be a one-score game with Alabama winning by roughly 2-3 points. Backing Illinois to cover this spread looks like solid value tonight.
Long Beach State Beach at No. 3 Gonzaga Bulldogs
Over 151.5 Points (-114)
Gonzaga ranks first in adjusted offense, so they shouldn't have any trouble racking up points against Long Beach State's 256-ranked adjusted defense. But with the spread way up at 33.5 points, even a blowout win for the Bulldogs might not cover, so focusing on the total might be the better way to go.
The Bulldogs' first four games have totaled 164, 168, 167, and 147 points, meaning they've well exceeded tonight's line in three of four. That lone exception came against a San Diego State team that's 15th in adjusted defense, and as noted above, Gonzaga shouldn't see anything close to that kind of resistance on Wednesday.
Long Beach State isn't a great offensive team, but they should be able to hold up their end of the bargain just enough as a solid outside shooting squad. They're 72nd in three-point rate and have been above average in three-point percentage (35.1%). This coincides with Gonzaga being 161st in three-point rate allowed, so the Beach should be able to get a healthy number of shots up.
Public models are also in line with the over. Bart Torvik pegs this matchup for 157 points while Massey Ratings projects 156.
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Which bets stand out to you across the nation tonight? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest college basketball betting odds to see the full menu of options.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.