3 Best College Basketball Bets and Predictions for Tuesday 12/3/24

College basketball is back, giving us plentiful betting options with so many teams in action each day.

Fortunately, we have abundant tools available that can aid our chances of finding good betting value. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.

Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and select some of the best bets of the day by utilizing the mentioned tools.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best College Basketball Picks

No. 14 Cincinnati Bearcats at Villanova Wildcats

Cincinnati -3.5 (-110)

Usually at this stage of the season teams are going on their first road trip of the year. That's not the case for the Cincinnati Bearcats, who are 2-0 outright and against the spread (ATS) in true road games. Once again, Cincinnati feels a bit undervalued in an away game against Villanova.

The Bearcats are raising eyebrows with a 6-0 start, holding some eye-popping numbers -- such as ranking 11th in EvanMiya's relative rankings. Cincy is currently spearheaded by an elite defense that ranks 15th in Bart Torvik's adjusted defensive efficiency and 7th in Evan Miya's defensive rating. Villanova is 64th in Bart Torvik, led by its offense that's 39th in adjusted offensive efficiency compared to 96th on defense.

In short, if the Bearcats can cut off the Wildcats' offense, this could turn into a cruising win. Nova has mostly impressed from three-point land, sitting in the top 16% of three-point shot distribution and top 7% in three-point percentage (38.6%). Cincinnati is in the top 4% of three-point shot distribution allowed, though, while holding opponents to 4.8 makes (top 2%) and 19.2 attempts per contest (top 11%).

Another strength for Villanova is offensive rebounding, ranked in the 98th percentile of offensive rebounding percentage. The Bearcats have yet another answer, sitting in the 73rd percentile of offensive and defensive rebounding rate.

The icing on the cake is Cincy's absurd efficiency, touting a 61.4% effective field goal percentage (eFG%). Not only do they lead the nation in eFG% on offense, the Bearcats also hold opponents to a college basketball-best 38.5 eFG%.

Cincinnati is simply the better team by a landslide in efficiency ratings. They've already performed well on the road early in the season, and I don't expect the Bearcats to stop now.

Michigan Wolverines at No. 11 Wisconsin Badgers

Michigan Moneyline (+138)

An quick look at the AP Top 25 Poll suggests the No. 11 Wisconsin Badgers could cruise in a home conference-opening matchup against Michigan. However, these rankings are deceptive, which is typically the case about one month into the season.

Bart Torvik has the Badgers ranked 34th while the Wolverines are 25th, and Evan Miya echoes the same sentiment with UM ranked 14th and Wisconsin at 31st. Michigan's play over the last week has caused them to spike in rankings, especially thanks to a 25-point win over Xavier as 1.5-point favorites.

The Wolverines are in the 96th percentile of eFG% while the Badgers are outside the top 75 in eFG% allowed while ranking 73rd in Bart Torvik's adjusted defensive efficiency. Michigan is also in the top 20% in shot distribution for close twos and three-pointers, and Wisconsin struggles to guard the three by giving up 24.3 shots per game (bottom 35%) and a 40.3% shot distribution (bottom 42%).

Scoring shouldn't be too much of a worry for the Wolverines, especially with the squad logging 80.9 PPG (top 83%) on the season and 10.5 made three-pointers per game over the previous two. Slowing the Badgers' offense -- which is putting up 85.3 PPG (top 6%) while ranking 23rd in adjusted offensive efficiency -- will likely be the biggest concern for UM.

Wisconsin loves to get to the free throw line, shooting 23.9 shots from the charity stripe per game (top 16%), and this only becomes even more dangerous with its college basketball-best 86.4% free throw percentage. The Wolverines do a great job of limiting fouls with only a 19.1% rate of personal fouls per play (top 11%).

Wing John Tonje is also off to a red-hot start with 22.9 PPG for the Badgers while carrying a silly 52.7%/42.1%/94.5% shooting split. Fortunately, Michigan has a trio of solid wing defenders in Nimari Burnett, Roddy Gayle, and Rubin Jones. Look for Jones to play a big role with his team-best 3.07 Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating (DBPR).

The result of Tuesday's clash could hinge on the turnover battle. The Wolverines have struggled to take care of the ball with 15.3 turnovers per game (bottom 7%), but they've also forced 17.3 turnovers per contest (top 2%). Over Michigan's last two games against high-major teams, it's finally gotten its turnover woes under wraps with 12.5 turnovers per game while winning the battle by +6.5 turnovers per game.

With the Wolverines taking better care of the ball paired with an exceptional defense, I like their chances of taking down a suspect Wisconsin team.

No. 23 Ole Miss Rebels at Louisville Cardinals

Ole Miss Moneyline (+136)

The SEC-ACC Challenge tips off tonight, featuring several intriguing non-conference clashes. Ole Miss-Louisville features one of the lowest spreads in the challenge as the Cardinals are 2.5-point home favorites. Taking a side is difficult as the Rebs are 39th in Bart Torvik while the Cards rank 45th.

Last season, Ole Miss got off to a hot start partially thanks to a weak non-con schedule. That has not been the case in the 2024 season, for the Rebels beat BYU 96-85 as 2.5-point underdogs and lost by only two points against No. 8 Purdue as three-point 'dogs. Louisville also showed promise last week by taking down Indiana and West Virginia.

However, the Cardinals come off a loss against Oklahoma while key forward Kasean Pryor suffered a season-ending knee injury. Pryor will not be an easy piece to replace, for he averaged 12.0 PPG while touting a 4.46 Bayesian Performance Rating (BPR) and 2.11 DBPR (both second-best on the team).

Losing a key defender before facing Ole Miss is huge loss; the Rebels carry the best unit of this matchup, ranked 15th in adjusted offensive efficiency. They are also recording 82.6 PPG (top 11%) while ranking in the 66th percentile of eFG%. Mississippi is in the top 34% of three-point distribution, and the Cards are in the bottom 46% of three-point shot distribution allowed. The Rebs are efficient enough from deep to make Louisville pay, knocking down 36.4% of their three-point looks (top 20%).

Louisville has some searching to do following the loss of Pryor. Considering Ole Miss should have the best unit on the floor, give me the underdog to pull off the upset. numberFire's game projections are giving the Rebels a 69.8% likelihood to win outright; the +136 odds for the Ole Miss moneyline has only a 42.4% implied probability.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.