3 Best College Basketball Bets and Predictions for Thursday 11/21/24
College basketball is back, giving us plentiful betting options with so many teams in action each day.
Fortunately, we have abundant tools available that can aid our chances of finding good betting value. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.
Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and select some of the best bets of the day by utilizing the mentioned tools.
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
Today's Best College Basketball Picks
Baylor vs. St. John's
VJ Edgecombe (BAY) Over 21.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-104)
No. 13 Baylor and No. 22 St. John's square off in Thursday's lone top-25 matchup, and it's shaping up to be one of the best games of the slate. Baylor has rattled off three straight wins after an opening-night loss to Gonzaga while St. John's sits at 4-0 fresh off a 14-point win over New Mexico.
I'm bullish on both teams this season, but it's too early in the year to be comfortable backing either side of this 2.5-point spread.
But I do think there's value in a player prop here -- namely, freshman phenom VJ Edgecombe. His 11.5-point prop is appealing on it's own, but it's hard to pass up the over on his 21.5 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) prop at -104 odds.
Edgecombe is averaging 11.3 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game -- good for 22.6 PRA. That includes his 12-PRA dud in the season-opener, but he's since cracked 24 PRA in three straight games, notably going for 11 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists against an Arkansas side ranked 9th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency
St. John's is 20th in adjusted defense, but they've faced only one team in KenPom's top 150. Though they held New Mexico (59th) to 71 points, that didn't stop Lobos lead guard Donovan Dent from racking up 12 points and 6 assists. The Red Storm have permitted plenty of dimes this season, ranking 291st nationally in opponent assist rate.
While they are in the top 60 nationally in total rebound rate, St. John's has ceded 12 offensive rebounds per game -- tied for 76th-most in the country. That could pay dividends for Edgecombe as 14 of his 30 rebounds this season have come on the offensive end.
We've also seen Edgecombe's scoring totals rise in every game this season, and it wouldn't be out of the question for him to flirt with the over here on points alone. He scored 17 in their most recent game and is tied for the highest usage rate (23.9%) on the Bears.
Thus, the freshman has multiple avenues to go over 21.5 PRA, making this a top college basketball prop to target on Thursday night.
Tennessee vs. Virginia
Virginia +12.5 (-120)
No. 11 Tennessee will take on unranked Virginia immediately following that Baylor-St. John's clash. The Vols are 12.5-point favorites here -- a spread far too high considering this game's measly 125.5-point over/under.
Spread Betting
Both Tennessee and Virginia have strong defensive systems, with the Vols sitting at 4th in adjusted defense and Virginia at 44th. Each is top-40 nationally in effective field goal percentage and points per game allowed, and they both play at a snail's pace. Virginia is 362nd out of 364 teams in KenPom's adjusted tempo while Tennessee is 223rd.
Considering their slow pace and strong defense, I'm not expecting many points in this one. That alone bodes well for Virginia's chances of keeping things close, but the Cavaliers' offense is what's sold me on them +12.5.
While Virginia is just 131st in adjusted offense and 332nd in scoring, they've been one of the most lethal three-point shooting teams in the country. The Cavaliers rank seventh in 3PFG% (45%) and 76th in made threes per game, even with their low possession totals. They've gotten 45.5% of their points from beyond the arc, 67th nationally.
That's the recipe to hang with the Vols. Tennessee has given up the 11th-highest three-point attempt rate on the year. And while they've only allowed opponents to shoot 27.5% from distance, they haven't exactly faced the best shooters college basketball has to offer. All four of their previous opponents are outside the top 125 in 3PFG%, and only one is shooting better than 31% from deep.
That should allow the Cavaliers to hang around and cover in what's expected to be an ugly affair.
Bart Torvik projects Tennessee to win 69-61 in this one, further bolstering my confidence that Virginia can cover as 12.5-point 'dogs.
Memphis vs. San Francisco
Memphis Moneyline (+100)
Both Memphis and San Francisco are undefeated just two weeks into the season, so it's not surprising to see the Dons favored in a "neutral site" game that's under five miles from their home floor. But, while travel is certainly a factor, it's not enough to push me away from a Memphis side that's a tier above San Francisco. That makes their +100 moneyline odds worth targeting for tonight's 10pm ET tip.
Moneyline
Memphis enters Thursday as a top-40 team according to KenPom and Bart Torvik's power ratings -- compared to a San Francisco team that's 51st on KenPom but just 68th by Torvik's numbers.
The Tigers are also the more battle-tested team here, having already faced KenPom's 53rd, 88th, and 160th teams. Their win over 88th-ranked UNLV was especially impressive as it came via a second-half comeback in a true road environment.
San Francisco, meanwhile, has played all four of their games at home -- three of which came against teams outside the top 250 on KenPom. They did take down 35th-ranked Boise State by double-digits, but the Dons also barely squeaked out a W against No. 258 Cal Poly in a game they trailed by six at the under-eight timeout.
Memphis is also the far more experienced team, ranking 6th nationally in KenPom's effective experience, compared to San Francisco at No. 154. That experience could be a major factor in a semi-away game, and it's a big reason why I give the Tigers the edge.
It doesn't hurt to have the computers on our side here, either. Though San Fran is favored, both Bart Torvik and KenPom have Memphis winning this one outright.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.