3 Best College Basketball Bets and Predictions for Thursday 11/14/24
College basketball is back, giving us plentiful betting options with so many teams in action each day.
Fortunately, we have abundant tools available that can aid our chances of finding good betting value. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.
Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and select some of the best bets of the day by utilizing the mentioned tools.
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Statistics via KenPom and Bart Torvik unless otherwise stated.
Today's Best College Basketball Picks
Northern Iowa vs. Wichita State
Under 152.5 (-105)
We're short on notable high-major games tonight, but there's a pretty fun Northern Iowa-Wichita State clash happening at 7:30 p.m. ET. Both Northern Iowa (112th) and Wichita State (87th) are in the top 125 of Bart Torvik's Power Ratings, and they've been historically solid mid-major programs.
The home Shockers are 7.5-point favorites, but I'm more interested in the 152.5-point total. Though each of Wichita State's first two games have gone over this mark, they haven't faced a defense quite like the Panthers' D. I'm expecting a low-scoring affair, making under 152.5 worth considering.
UNI isn't especially fearsome on the defensive end (146th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency), but they're stylistically different than what Wichita State has faced this season. Northern Iowa is 288th in opponent average possession length, meaning they've forced opposing teams to chew up the shot clock and slow down the game. They're 283rd in overall adjusted tempo, partially explaining why the Panthers are giving up only 67.3 points per game.
They surrendered 80 points to the only top-100 team they faced, but UNI scored only 60 themselves in that one. So, even if Wichita State (72nd in adjusted offense) is able to put up points on Northern Iowa, I'm not sure the Panthers (134th in adjusted offense) can hang. Wichita State allowed 84 points to Eastern Kentucky in the season-opener, but the Hilltoppers are 8th nationally in tempo. The Shockers held Montana State's 178th-ranked offense to 69 points in their most recent game -- and that's the same offense that put 67 on Wisconsin.
That has me leaning under 152.5. KenPom is right at this total, but Bart Torvik has it a tad lower at 148. Given how UNI's offense looked last time out -- and how slow they play -- I'm not anticipating much scoring in this one.
Grand Canyon vs. Arizona State
Arizona State +5.5 (-120)
The game of the night has to be Grand Canyon vs. Arizona State. This is a neutral site game at the Footprint Center (home of the Phoenix Suns) in downtown Phoenix, so Grand Canyon technically has the travel advantage -- though ASU is just 10 miles away.
Even so, I can't help but take the points with Arizona State.
Grand Canyon's gotten some buzz with news that Tyon Grant-Foster will make his season debut tonight. The reigning WAC Player of the Year led the Lopes with 20.1 points per game last season before testing the waters at the NBA Combine.
With Grant-Foster leading the way, Grand Canyon finished 52nd on KenPom and made the Second Round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament. The Lopes currently sit at 2-0 and 73rd on KenPom after squeaking out a two-point win over 131st-ranked Western Kentucky without their star last time out.
Grant-Foster should give them a huge boost, but 5.5 points is a wide margin against a Big 12 school (yes, Arizona State is in the Big 12)
The Sun Devils opened the season with a pair of shaky single-digit wins over mid-majors that are rated outside KenPom's top 100 but battled Gonzaga on the road last time out. Though they eventually lost by eight points, the Sun Devils were tied at halftime and were genuinely competitive throughout.
Arizona State sits at 69th on KenPom following a disappointing 14-18 season last year. But they finished as a top-100 KenPom team in each of Bobby Hurley's previous six seasons at the school and returned just 22% of minutes from last year's team. Their top two scorers are both senior guards who transferred in after averaging 17-plus points elsewhere in 2023-24.
Bart Torvik has this game decided by less than a single point, and KenPom actually has the Sun Devils winning this outright. In what I view as essentially a toss-up, I'm happy to grab Arizona State +5.5.
BJ Freeman (ASU) Over 17.5 Points + Rebounds (-120)
BJ Freeman was the crown jewel of Bobby Hurley's incoming transfer class, and he hasn't disappointed. The 6'6" guard has averaged a team-high 13.7 points to go along with 4.0 rebounds over their first three games, so I'm interested in the over on his 17.5 points + rebounds prop.
Freeman transferred in from Milwaukee, and he led the Horizon League in scoring last year, averaging 21.1 points as well as 6.6 rebounds for a 20-15 Panthers squad.
He's come off the bench to open his Sun Devil career but is averaging 25 minutes and has seen more action in each of their first three games. He cleared this 17.5 prop in the first two games before putting up a quiet 12 points and 1 rebound against Gonzaga.
Grand Canyon should be an easier matchup for Freeman. The Lopes don't have nearly as much interior size as Gonzaga did, and they've been blitzed behind the arc to start the year. Opposing teams have shot 40% from deep against Grand Canyon, and while that's a small sample, it bodes well for Freeman. He's attempted 7.0 threes per game for his career and is up to 8.0 per night in his short stint at ASU.
Look for Freeman to bounce back from a rough outing against Gonzaga, putting him in a nice spot to clear this 17.5 points + rebounds prop.
A Same Game Parlay featuring Arizona State +5.5 and Freeman over 17.5 points + rebounds comes out to +177 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.