3 Best College Basketball Bets and Predictions for Friday 12/6/24

College basketball is back, giving us plentiful betting options with so many teams in action each day.

Fortunately, we have abundant tools available that can aid our chances of finding good betting value. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.

Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and select some of the best bets of the day by utilizing the mentioned tools.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best College Basketball Picks

Siena Saints at Niagara Purple Eagles

Niagara -2.5 (-104)

The Siena Saints and Niagara Purple Eagles are tipping off their Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC) play on Friday night. Bart Torvik has these teams as nearly even with Siena ranking 308th while Niagara is 317th. The two carry similar records, too, as the Saints are 4-4 compared to the Purple Eagles at 3-5.

The home team feels like the better bet, as Niagara is 1-0 in its home arena, and Siena is 1-2 in true road games and has failed to cover two of its last three contests away from home.

Three-pointers could hold plenty of weight in this matchup, for the Eagles are in the top 21% of three-point attempts per game while sitting in the top 8% for the highest shot distribution from three. Meanwhile, the Saints are giving up a 36.9% three-point percentage (bottom 15%).

The possession battle will also likely fall in Niagara's favor. The Purple Eagles total only 11.9 turnovers per game (top 40% for the fewest) and have a 71.8% defensive rebounding percentage (197th). In comparison, Siena logs 13.9 turnovers per game (bottom 22%) paired with a 68.7% defensive rebounding rate (291st). In a tight game with a 2.5-point spread, finishing with a few more possessions could prove to be the difference for Niagara.

Our final nail in the coffin is the Saints' offense. The unit is 313th in adjusted offensive efficiency while sitting in the bottom third of major shot distribution stats. This offense doesn't hold many pluses and heavily leans on 22.0 free throw attempts per game (top 24%). However, the Eagles commit only 17.1 fouls per game (top 41% for the fewest).

numberFire's game projections are giving Niagara a 64.8% likelihood to cover compared to its -104 odds holding only a 51.0% implied probability.

Kennesaw State Owls at Georgia State Panthers

Over 158.5 Points (-108)

Tonight's action features a non-conference matchup between mid-major squads, Kennesaw State and Georgia State. The two are deadlocked on Bart Torvik as the Owls are 221st compared to the Panthers ranked 220th. Georgia State's strength seems to be its offense, sitting 187th in adjusted offense compared to 252nd in adjusted defense. However, the Panthers' shot distributions are alarming.

Georgia State is in the bottom 10% for shot distribution on close twos and threes. It also sports the eighth-highest shot distribution for "further twos" -- better known as mid-range jumpers. However, mid-range attempts are widely frowned upon in today's day and age, putting the Panthers in the bottom end of the category. This offense simply screams inefficiency.

Similar to our last pick with Siena, Georgia State depends on 21.7 free throw attempts per game (top 27%). It could work for this matchup, though, as Kennesaw State commits 19.9 personal fouls per game (bottom 15% for the most). Adding to the idea of points, the Owls are in the top 30% for the most three-point attempts per game and top 20% for the highest three-point shot distribution. The Panthers surrender 27.0 three-point attempts per contest (bottom 10%).

Each squad is also in the top 36% for the quickest adjusted tempos, suggesting even more points. Each defense is in the bottom half of points per game allowed, as well. Give me the over for this mid-major matchup.

No. 19 Illinois Fighting Illini at Northwestern Wildcats

Northwestern Moneyline (+134)

Illinois is 10th on Bart Torvik while Northwestern ranks 53rd in the category, yet Friday's meeting carries only a 3.5-point spread in favor of the Fighting Illini.

Despite logging 89.1 PPG (top 2%), Illinois is only 26th in adjusted offense as it attempts 64.6 field goals per game (top 6%) while carrying a 55.0% effective field goal percentage (61st). If the Wildcat are to pull off the upset, they must try to slow this tempo down. Northwestern simply doesn't have the horses to put up this kind of point total, averaging only 73.3 PPG (bottom 53%) while ranking 82nd in adjusted offense.

The Illini have been an excellent rebounding team in the top 4% of defensive and offensive rebounding percentages. Rebounding could be closer than expected as the Wildcats rank 141st in offensive rebounding percentage (top 39%) and 60th in defensive rebounding percentage (top 16%).

Northwestern holds opponents to only 64.4 PPG (top 9%) and excels in the ideal areas to take away Illinois' strength. For example, the Fighting Illini throw up 33.9 three-point shots per game (top 1%) along with a 52.4% three-point shot distribution (top 2%). The Wildcats yield 19.9 three-point attempts per contest (top 13% for defense) and is in the top 31% for the lowest three-point distribution allowed.

Each offense does a wonderful job of taking care of the ball by sitting in the top 24% for the fewest turnovers per game. If that's the case yet again, look for Northwestern to play at a snail's pace by dribbling the shot clock out. The Wildcats are in the top 10% for the slowest adjusted pace while the Illini are in the top 9% for the quickest pace.

Northwestern has the ability to make Illinois a bit uncomfortable, and we already have numbers suggesting the Fighting Illini's offense is not that efficient and depends on plenty of shot attempts.

Ranked teams losing on the road to non-ranked squads in conference play has become a trend in college basketball. We have an angle for Northwestern pulling off the upset, and it has a trio of bucket getters in Brooks Barnhizer (20.2 PPG), Nick Martinelli (20.1 PPG), and Jalen Leach (14.1 PPG) -- who are more than capable of taking over this game in the clutch. numberFire has Illinois winning by only 1.2 points; the Wildcats moneyline is worth a dart considering the value at +134.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.