3 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Super Bowl LIX Between the Chiefs and Eagles

Looking at my model's Super Bowl LIX spread and total prediction makes me super uncomfortable.

It wants me to bet the Philadelphia Eagles at plus money to defeat the Kansas City Chiefs. That means betting against The Boogeyman and rooting against Patrick Mahomes in a must-win game.

For someone who is pro-fun and anti-anxiety, that is less than ideal. But I do agree with most of the logic behind what the model is saying, and I think there are ways I can work around it in order to lower my fear of betting against Mahomes.

Let's dig into that now, discussing bets I like in FanDuel Sportsbook's Super Bowl betting odds that help me exploit what the model is saying without putting a full damper on my ability to sit back and enjoy the game.

Super Bowl LIX Betting Picks for Chiefs vs. Eagles

Eagles' Alternate Team Total Over 26.5 (+126)

If my model is directionally wrong, I think it's most likely to be too low on the Chiefs' offense.

In this market, they can do whatever the heck they want. I value that peace of mind.

The reason I've got the Eagles favored, primarily, is that I'm still skeptical of the Chiefs' defense. Even when you omit Week 18 (which you should), they're still just ninth in numberFire's schedule-adjusted defensive rankings. While that's certainly good, it's not quite as elite as they have been at times. It's a unit against which the Eagles should be able to move the ball.

Given that, this number is pretty obtainable for the Eagles' offense. They scored 27-plus points in 11 of 20 games overall, including 9 of 17 games where Jalen Hurts was fully healthy and 9 of 14 where he had A.J. Brown. I'm fine looking at those rates if the opposing defense isn't an outlier, which is what we have in this scenario.

Second Half Total Under 23.5 (+110)

In general, I lean toward the over here with my model pinning it at 49.5. But with both teams able to absolutely milk clock with a lead late, I could see the pace careening to a halt in the second half.

During the regular season, the Eagles' defense faced just 508 plays in the second half. That was second fewest among all teams, and most of the teams around them -- the Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns, Arizona Cardinals, and New York Giants -- were bad. Thus, opposing offenses didn't have to quicken the pace to make up ground. That was the scenario with the Eagles, yet they still faced minimal volume because their offense could turn into a boa constrictor.

The Chiefs ranked 15th in this department despite a 15-2 record. Their offense is dependent on a high success rate rather than big plays, allowing them to pick up critical third downs and drain clock even without having Saquon Barkley on their roster.

As a result, both the Eagles (6th) and Chiefs (9th) ranked top-10 in second half points allowed per game. The odds this bet hits decrease if the game winds up being tight, but if either team can build a lead, we could be in for a low-scoring final two quarters.

Eagles' First Drive Result: Punt (+130)

This runs counter to the team total up top, so it's best not to pair them together in an SGP. But for whatever reason, the Eagles have had a dreadful time on their opening drives this year, creating value in this market.

As FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula laid out last week, the Eagles didn't score an opening-drive touchdown until Week 16. In total, they punted on 50.0% of their opening drives, and that number remains the same even if you omit the two games that Hurts missed. The implied odds at +130 are 43.5%.

As discussed above, they managed to overcome that and score a bunch of points this year. The slow starts should get our attention, though, allowing me to like this bet while simultaneously backing the Eagles' alternate team total above.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.