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3 Best Bets and Player Props for Cavaliers at Celtics

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

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3 Best Bets and Player Props for Cavaliers at Celtics

Even within a single NBA game, betting markets are abundant.

You can bet traditional markets like the spread or the total, but we've also got tons of player-prop markets to sift through.

Which bets stand out today as the Cavaliers face the Celtics?

Let's dig into the best bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA betting odds, utilizing FanDuel Research's NBA projections to try to find value.

Cavaliers at Celtics Betting Picks

Cavaliers +5.5 (-108)

The cream of the crop in the Eastern Conference are meeting today in the NBA Cup group stage. The Cleveland Cavaliers continue to be scorching hot, recording a franchise-best 15-0 start to the season, while the Boston Celtics look the part of the defending champs at 11-3. According to FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA conference odds, Boston carries the shortest odds to win the East (+120) while Cleveland holds the third-shortest numbers (+600).

The injury report throws a wrench into tonight's anticipated clash. For the Cavs, Dean Wade (ankle) is out while Isaac Okoro (ankle), Sam Merrill (ankle), and Caris LeVert (knee) are all questionable. If Okoro cannot go, Cleveland will be down a starter, and LeVert and Merrill have been providing key minutes off the bench. For the Celtics, Kristaps Porzingis (tibialis tendon) has yet to make his season debut, and Payton Pritchard (thumb) is questionable. Pritchard carries the shortest odds to win Sixth Man of the Year (+190).

As long as the Cavaliers have enough from their bench -- which has been going 10 deep -- I like their chances of covering.

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Boston has failed to cover in four consecutive home games, and its performance in the paint thus far causes some worry. The Celtics are averaging the fourth-fewest points in the paint per game while giving up the third-most points in the paint per contest.

This was last season's formula as Boston loves to shoot the three-ball, notching the most attempts per game from deep. However, I'm a bit more concerned about the interior defense minus Porzingis. The Cavs feature a big frontcourt in Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley; Neemias Queta and Luke Kornet are the only 7-footers that the Celtics use, and each plays sparingly in bench roles.

According to Dunks & Threes, Boston gives up the 11th-highest shot distribution at the rim while Cleveland features the 6th-highest shot distribution at the rim. As the Celtics like to say, three is better than two, but the Cavs are plenty capable of knocking down three-pointers with the 13th-most attempts per contest while shooting 41.9% from beyond the arc (first).

Cleveland is simply a different beast right now, and without Porzingis, Boston could have more trouble than normal in defending the Cavaliers' frontcourt.

Under 236.0 (-110)

We've mostly focused on each offense, but don't sleep on each team's ability to defend. The Celtics carry the ninth-best defensive rating, compared to the Cavaliers' seventh-best mark.

This one could move toward a slower pace. These two sides play at contrasting styles -- Boston plays at the seventh-slowest pace while Cleveland carries the seventh-quickest pace.

The Cavs' pace is something I expect to go down as the season goes on; they have the eighth-lowest shot frequency within 18 to 15 seconds on the shot clock -- which the NBA classifies as early in the shot clock. While the Cavaliers carry the 10th-highest field goal attempt frequency within 22 to 18 seconds on the clock (very early), this doesn't mean Cleveland is destined to play fast. In fact, the Celtics hold the fifth-highest mark in this category, and they are firmly among the slowest paces.

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Boston also limits opponent fastbreak points, giving up the 10th-fewest per game. Between the shot clock numbers and the Cavs' fast-break points (seventh-most per game) likely dipping tonight, we should get fewer points than the total suggests. Cleveland surrendering the ninth-fewest fast-break points per contest provides even more evidence.

We shouldn't overlook that each defense is in the top 11 in effective field goal percentage (eFG%) allowed. DRatings' predictions has this total at 229.2 while numberFire's game projections has the total set at only 219.6 points. numberFire is giving the under a 78.1% likelihood, yet the -110 odds holds only a 52.4% implied probability for the under.

Jarrett Allen Over 14.5 Points (-104)

The Celtics have clear concerns in defending the paint right now, and that should mean success for Allen. Cleveland's center takes 75.4% of his shots within five feet of the basket while shooting 73.5% on the looks around the rim. Allen doesn't provide much versatility on offense, but he's still boasting a 124.4 offensive rating this season.

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As previously mentioned, Boston has some size concerns sans Porzingis. This leaves the frontcourt defending to the 6-foot-9 Al Horford and 6-foot-8 Jayson Tatum. Allen has been listed at 6-foot-11 for most of his career, but that's now at 6-foot-9. So, why are we even talking about a size advantage? Cleveland's center plays bigger than his height thanks to a 7-foot-6 wingspan, which surely overshadows Horford (7-foot-1 wingspan) and Tatum (6-foot-11 wingspan).

Probably our best case for over 14.5 points for Allen is his running mate -- Evan Mobley. Mobley stands at a true 6-foot-11 alongside a 7-foot-4 wingspan. He has been improved early in the season at 18.1 points per game (PPG). Simply put, the Celtics cannot throw all of their attention at Allen. With that said, Allen should get his looks against a poor paint defense.

Allen has also logged 22.5 PPG over his last two. Getting over 14.5 points at -104 feels like nice value. We've put a heavy focus on Boston's struggles to defend the rim, and this pairs well with Cleveland to cover the spread. Allen put up 21 points in his last matchup against the Celtics; another big night should be ahead.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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