3 Best Australian Open Tennis Bets for Wednesday 1/15/25

The first Grand Slam of the year, the Australian Open, is underway this week.

We should see plenty of fun matches and storylines emerge over the next couple of weeks, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Australian Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see which second-round matches could have the most betting value on Wednesday.

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Australian Open Tennis Second Round Betting Picks for Wednesday

Fabian Marozsan vs. Frances Tiafoe

Marozsan ML (+150)

Frances Tiafoe continues to demonstrate a frustrating trend of peaking at the US Open while failing to make much headway at the other three Grand Slams. Over the past three seasons, Tiafoe has reached at the least the US Open quarterfinals in three straight, whereas he's advanced past the third round just once at the other three majors.

While he has reached the quarterfinals at the Australian Open, that came back in 2019, and he's since been bounced in the first or second round in four of the last five attempts.

Can Tiafoe buck this trend and show some of that US Open magic on the other side of the globe?

Unfortunately, the American's post-US Open play doesn't inspire much confidence. Entering this event, Tiafoe had failed to win consecutive times over his last dozen matches, going just 5-7 during that stretch.

The 25-year-old Fabian Marozsan hasn't made any deep runs at majors, but he's been playing in tour-level events for only about a year and a half. Over the past 52 weeks, his win percentage on hard courts is a respectable 54.5% and not all that far off from Tiafoe's 58.1%.

Although both players suffered through lengthy five-setters in the first round, seeing as they last played on Day 2 and get an extra day of rest, fatigue theoretically shouldn't be an issue.

When he's at his best, Tiafoe is the more dangerous player at this stage in their careers, but it remains unclear whether will see his top form to open 2025. Until he proves otherwise, this looks like an opportunity to take a chance on the underdog.

Per Tennis Abstract, Marozsan has done enough to earn a 40% win chance against Tiafoe. His odds have already moved from +180 to +150 this morning, but this still looks like value spot to back the Hungarian player.

Joao Fonseca vs. Lorenzo Sonego

Fonseca 3-0 Sets (+125)

Teenage phenom Joao Fonseca sure didn't disappoint in his Grand Slam main draw debut, wiping the floor with World No. 9 Andrey Rublev 7-6(1), 6-3, 7-6(5) in just under two and a half hours. Although Rublev was in the midst of a losing skid dating back to last year, besting a top-10 player like this in your first major will certainly get everyone's attention.

Fonseca has now won 14 straight matches and has won 9 in a row without dropping a set. While this includes Challenger matches and qualifiers, this latest victory already proves that Fonseca belongs and could soon see a swift move up the rankings.

At just 18 years old, though, a drop in level has to be expected at some point, and he'll likely have to overcome some tough challenges to earn a deep run into the second week. After such a big win, a letdown would certainly be expected in the following match -- but it's fair to wonder if Lorenzo Sonego will be up to the task to punch back.

Sonego has alternated wins and losses over his last eight matches, and it just so happens Rublev's last win came against the Italian. A four-set victory over a 39-year-old Stan Wawrinka in the first round won't move the needle much, either.

Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings are already high on Fonseca despite his lack of experience, and he's projected for a 74% win probability versus Sonego. While a dropped set is probably coming for Fonseca sooner rather than later, getting him at plus money to win in straight sets is appealing against a struggling opponent.

Matteo Berrettini vs. Holger Rune

Rune ML (+118)

As the betting lines would indicate, this should be a close one between Matteo Berrettini and Holger Rune, but there could be value in backing the slight underdog.

For one thing, Rune owns a 3-1 head-to-head record over Berrettini, and while one of his victories was due to a Berrettini retirement, Rune won the last two completed matches, both of which came last year and were on hard courts.

Additionally, Holger is the seeded player here (13 seed), so it's a bit surprising to see him not be favored on that fact alone.

Sure, Berrettini reached as high as world No. 6 in 2022 before injuries derailed him, so he isn't your typically unseeded opponent. He's done well to work his way back inside the top 40. However, much of his comeback over the past 52 weeks have come on his favorite surface, clay, where he went 15-1 and won three titles. This is in contrast to going a more pedestrian 11-9 on hard courts over that span.

This shows in Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings, as well. Berrettini ranks 6th in clay Elo rating, whereas that drops to just 27th on hard courts. On the other hand, Rune is just outside the top 10 in hard court Elo rating (11th).

Recent form doesn't particularly favor either one, too. Both lost a tune-up match in Brisbane prior to the Australian Open, and both also needed around three hours of court time to dispatch their first-round opponents.

Ultimately, it feels like Rune should be the favorite rather than the other way around, so getting him to win at plus money feels like solid value. Tennis Abstract projects a 61% win probability for Rune. Massey Ratings projects just a 53% chance of victory, but that still suggests the Danish player shouldn't be the underdog.

Looking for the latest tennis odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to check out all of the tennis betting options and upcoming tournaments.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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