2026 Southwest Stakes Betting Odds and Contenders Preview

Key Takeaways

• The 2026 Southwest Stakes drew a full 14-horse field for a $1 million purse, making it one of the deepest and most competitive early Kentucky Derby preps of the season at Oaklawn.
• Pace will be a major factor, with multiple speed and pace-adjacent runners signed on, setting up a race that could favor tactical stalkers and proven closers rather than pure front-runners.
• Strategic Risk brings the strongest local form after his convincing Smarty Jones win, pairing proven Oaklawn success with tactical versatility and red-hot connections.
• Bob Baffert ships two serious contenders, led by Litmus Test, whose Grade 2 win and proven two-turn experience make him the most accomplished horse in the field despite questions about handling a large field.
• Longshot players have options, most notably Bricklin, whose allowance breakthrough and trainer’s strong second-off-the-layoff profile make him a live price to spice up exotics.

Racing gets back into swing at Oaklawn this week after the January break, a part of their longer new schedule. Live racing returns a little later than expected after the winter storm blew through last week, but that only means more stakes this week, including the $1 million Southwest Stakes (G3) on Friday. The richest of the 20-10-6-4-2 point Kentucky Derby preps, the big purse attracted a big field.

The 2026 Southwest Stakes, which covers 1 1/16 miles on the dirt, drew a full-capacity field of 14 horses. Trainer Bob Baffert, who always ships live from California to Oaklawn, sends both Litmus Test and Buetane. D’Code, a dazzling debut maiden winner at Oaklawn in December, steps up to stakes company. Liberty National, the well-regarded runner up from the Gun Runner at Fair Grounds, also heads to Arkansas for this.

This is the second points race of the Oaklawn season. The top five from the Smarty Jones Stakes, the first points race at Oaklawn, also join the fray to provide some continuity: Strategic Risk, Silent Tactic, Baytown Dreamer, Sleepingonfreedom, and Rancho Santa Fe.

The Southwest has had some top-tier winners throughout its history. The 2024 Southwest Stakes winner, Mystik Dan, went on to win the Kentucky Derby. He became the second Southwest winner to take the blanket of roses, exactly 20 years after Smarty Jones did it. Other major winners of this race include 2021 Belmont winner Essential Quality, 2013 Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Secret Circle (2012), 2007 champion older male Lawyer Ron (2006), and 1997 champion sprinter Smoke Glacken (1997).

Southwest Stakes 2026 Information

• Race Date: Friday, February 6, 2026
• Track: Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, AR
• Post Time: 4:40 p.m. Central Standard Time
• Distance: 1 1/16 miles
• Age/Sex: three-year-olds
• Where to Watch: FanDuel TV
• Where to Bet: FanDuel Racing

Southwest Stakes Odds

This is the field for the 2026 Southwest Stakes, including post positions, trainers, jockeys, and morning-line odds for each horse.

Southwest Stakes Prep Results

The 14 entrants in the Southwest Stakes come out of 10 different races.

Five horses from the Smarty Jones Stakes, the 10-point prep January 3 at Oaklawn, press on to the Southwest. Those include the top five finishers. Strategic Risk stalked a slow pace before drawing off to win by 4 ½ lengths over late-running Silent Tactic. Baytown Dreamer was third after tracking the pace, outfinishing Sleepingonfreedom and Rancho Santa Fe.

Three horses come out of graded-stakes races. Both west coast shippers do: Litmus Test makes his three-year-old debut here and was last seen winning the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), while Buetane was second to So Happy in the San Vicente (G2) in his sophomore debut on January 10. Soldier n Diplomat makes his sophomore debut in this spot; he was last seen running third to Further Ado in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) on November 29 at Churchill Downs.

One other horse comes out of a stakes race. Liberty National was a gaining second in the Gun Runner, the first Kentucky Derby points race at Fair Grounds on December 20.

One other runner last raced against winners. Bricklin wired his three-year-old debut in a first-level allowance mile at Oaklawn on January 3.

The other four entrants all come out of maiden special weight scores at Oaklawn. Circle Tap earned his diploma at the same distance as the Southwest, 1 1/16 miles, on December 27. One other graduated at the two-turn mile: Spirit of Royal, who did so on January 2. The other two broke their maidens at six furlongs and will stretch out for the first time in the Southwest: D’code did so on December 14, and Reclamation did so on January 3.

Southwest Stakes Contenders

These are the contenders in the 2026 Southwest at Oaklawn Park, organized by post position:

1. Reclamation: There is plenty of pace drawn into the 2026 edition of the Southwest, and it begins at the rail with Reclamation. He battled early with D’code on debut, who he faces again in this, and wasn’t able to keep up with that one. He came back a few weeks later and did win both the early pace battle and the entire race, but now he faces a deeper field with even more speed and may find himself outmatched.
2. D’code: He dazzled on debut, disputing the early pace before processing clear to win by 8 ¼ lengths in a fast time. He does shape as the speed of the speed this time around, especially since neither of the Bob Baffert shippers need the lead. However, the question is whether he wants to go this far. Sire Speightstown’s progeny can stretch out if there’s enough underneath … his dam was a sprinter, but there is some miler and even middle-distance form sprinkled about the family. So, this distance is a question—not impossible, but also hard to get excited about at a short price.
3. Buetane: This Baffert “B” has three solid starts at one turn—a victory going six furlongs and a pair of graded-stakes seconds at seven furlongs. Now he stretches out for the first time. Tiz the Law on top is a great sign for the stretch out; underneath is a mix, as second dam Dream of Summer is all route though his first dam seems to throw sprinters. Drawing near the inside in such a big field could be thorny, too, though his tactical speed could play well.
4. Rancho Santa Fe: This Brad Cox trainee has a lot of two-turn experience: in three starts, he has never gone shorter than a mile and never done anything but two-turn races. He has won twice in those three starts as well. However, he regressed trying stakes company at Oaklawn, and even his wins are a little slow compared to what he needs to find. But, the pedigree suggests improvement—he is by Tapit out of Family Tree, a Smart Strike mare who put it together with age and distance. And, big-race jockey Flavien Prat sees fit to ride.
5. Litmus Test: He has only won twice in five starts, but has been keeping top company: all three of his defeats came in Grade 1 company, he was third to Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Futurity, and he was even closer to that one when fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He just keeps running fast races; he has tactical speed that should play well in this spot, and he has 1 1/16-mile seasoning that should have him ready to roll in his sophomore debut. The biggest question is the big field: he has never raced in a field bigger than seven, and here he lines up in a field twice that size.
6. Circle Tap: This Dallas Stewart longshot is going the right way: it took him five starts to break his maiden, but he did so last out in his first try at two turns despite some trip trouble. It was also his first try with blinkers. This suggests he’s where he wants to be, but on the other hand, he’ll still have to improve from a speed perspective. If he does, though, he isn’t out of the question as an out-of-the-blue long shot for underneath parts of exotics, a place where handicappers often find Dallas Stewart trainees in big races.
7. Liberty National: He woke up big time second-out when stretching to 1 1/16 miles and graduating in a 12-horse maiden special weight at Churchill Downs on Stars of Tomorrow II day. It was good enough to make him the favorite in the Gun Runner, but he ran out of room despite getting a fast pace in front of him. He should get at least an honest pace to close into, but he’ll need to get moving sooner. Though, there is upside: this distance is perfect for him, and trainer Kenny McPeek is having a strong winter in Hot Springs.
8. Spirit of Royal: This Dallas Stewart trainee needed six starts to get off the mark, and it’s always a good sign to see that breakout effort come in his first try at two turns. However, it wasn’t significantly faster than his sprint form, meaning he may have just caught a field he could beat. It’s good to see Francisco Arrieta staying in the irons as he’s a good rider who frequently outruns his odds. But, it’s hard to see him improving enough.
9. Strategic Risk: Though he earned his diploma sprinting against Florida-breds last summer, he found his place stretching out. His breakout effort came thrashing state-breds in the In Reality last November, but he proved that he can shine against open company—and at tracks other than Gulfstream—after his stalk-and-pounce victory in the Smarty Jones on January 3. Javier Castellano returns to the irons, and has taken both stalking and midpack trips with this horse. All in all, there’s a lot to like about this Mark Casse trainee.
10. Bricklin: This Rodolphe Brisset trainee makes the second start of his 3-year-old year, coming off a frontrunning allowance win at Oaklawn a month ago. He doesn’t need the lead to win—he came from midpack to score in a sprint second-out at Indiana Grand last fall. The question is whether he bounces off his last, which was by far a career best. But, with Rodolphe Brisset’s strong record of horses winning at prices second off the layoff, there’s reason for optimism at a huge price.
11. Silent Tactic: In three starts, this Mark Casse trainee has never run badly. All of those starts have come at 1 1/16 miles, the Southwest Stakes distance, meaning that’s no worry here. He has passed horses in all three of his starts, he adapted to dirt (and the removal of Lasix) well when switching to it for the Smarty Jones, and he did what he could to finish second behind a sluggish pace. He will have to go faster this time. But, on the other hand, he will get a lot more pace to close into than he did last out. So, there’s upside.
12. Baytown Dreamer: With nine starts, this Paul McEntee trainee has the most seasoning of anyone in the field. However, his only win came in a maiden turf mile on the Ellis lawn last summer. His one two-turn dirt start, last out in the Southwest, was a credible enough third, but he has never run a race fast enough to challenge these foes, and he has run enough that we know what we’re going to get.
13. Soldier N Diplomat: It’s good news for this Steve Asmussen trainee that the Oaklawn course can play pretty fairly to outside draws. After all, he has the tactical speed to work out a nice outside-stalking trip. The question is whether he stays the trip, as he did flatten out to third after stalking and rallying into a fast pace in his only previous two-turn start, and his pedigree leans sprinter-miler. The pace will be honest if not outright fast in this one, too, suggesting a similar setup.
14. Sleepingonfreedom: He looked strong headed into the Smarty Jones, especially since Kenny McPeek both buys shrewdly at auction and has shown no qualms about starting good ones in auction-restricted races. But, he regressed in the Smarty Jones and was a no-threat fourth. He has a lot of progression to make, even from his better races earlier in his career, and he risks losing a lot of ground from the outside.

Southwest Stakes Past Winners Past Performances

Looking over the last ten years of the Southwest Stakes, the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn has produced the most next-out Southwest winners of all races, though none of those three last-out Smarty Jones runners won it. Super Steed (2019) was seventh, Silver Prospector (2020) was eighth, and Mystik Dan (2024) was fifth.

Two other races have more than one next-out Southwest winner over the last ten years. The One is the Remington Springboard Mile: Suddenbreakingnews (2016) and Speed King (2025) both came out of runner-up finishes. The other race with a pair of next-out Southwest winner over the last ten years is the Sham (G3), a now-discontinued early Kentucky Derby prep at Santa Anita. My Boy Jack (2018) came out of a third-place finish, and Newgrange (2022) won it.

The other stakes race to produce a next-out winner of the Southwest in the last ten years is the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Essential Quality (2021) won the race in his first start since winning that championship race.

Only two of the last ten winners came out of non-stakes races. One Liner (2017) came into the race out of a victory in a first-level allowance at Gulfstream. Arabian Knight (2023) was making his first start since a debut maiden win at Keeneland in November, making him the only Southwest winner in the last ten years to do so in his first try against winners.

Southwest Stakes: 3 Best Bets

These are the three best bets in the 2026 Southwest Stakes:

1. Strategic Risk (9-2)

Though it has been since Far Right in 2015 that a Smarty Jones winner has repeated in the Southwest, there has still been plenty of form out of that race in the ensuing years, and there are strong reasons why Strategic Risk can win right back in the Southwest. This son of Noble Bird has grown into himself at 1 1/16 miles, the distance of the Southwest. He has the tactical versatility that he needs to figure out a trip in such a big field, and he showed in the Smarty Jones that he can handle both Oaklawn and open company.

The connections also build confidence. Mark Casse has had an unreal start to the Oaklawn meet; out of 23 starters, 11 have won, and 19 have hit the board, an almost unreal beginning to the meet. And, Strategic Risk has come around in his last two starts with Javier Castellano joining in the saddle—and Castellano returns for the Smarty Jones. All in all, Strategic Risk looks like an in-form horse with in-form connections, and between the Baffert shippers and the buzz maidens, he looks ready to be an overlay as well.

2. Litmus Test (5-2)

Bob Baffert has built a reputation of coming sharp to Oaklawn, and this is the better of his two entrants. Litmus Test has shown his tactical speed over and over again racing out west, and he broke through at 1 1/16 miles in the Los Alamitos Futurity, once he got out of the shadow of Ted Noffey. His usual day at the office as a two-year-old was fast enough to make him a serious contender in this spot, and if he has made any kind of step forward over this brief month-and-a-half freshening, he should be ready to be a tough contender in his sophomore debut.

3. Bricklin (20-1)

In a field this big, there’s always room for some major long shot to spoil the party. Enter Bricklin. He was well beaten in his stakes debut last fall, but that came after some trouble at the start. He got a freshening, he returned at the allowance level at Oaklawn on January 3, and he survived a speed duel to score gate to wire.

If that were his only dimension, there would be serious questions, but he was able to rally from well off the pace in his maiden win. If he can tap into that passing gear even in a two-turn race, that can make him a serious contender at a price. And, even though that allowance win was a sharp step forward from his previous form, trainer Rodolphe Brisset’s record with horses coming second off the lay—20% wins with a flat-bet profit over the last three years—suggests that he is in a good position to move forward.

Southwest Stakes Undercard

The Southwest Stakes, rescheduled from last weekend, is the 11th of 12 races on Friday’s card at Oaklawn. The card features three other stakes. One is the Martha Washington, a 1 1/16-mile race that offers 3-year-old fillies 20-10-6-4-2 points toward the Kentucky Oaks. The two others are the $135,000 General MacArthur Overnight Stakes for older horses at 1 ⅛ miles and the $135,000 Bugler Overnight Stakes for older fillies and mares at six furlongs. Both of the overnight stakes are restricted to horses who have never won a stakes other than a state-bred or restricted event.

With big fields throughout the day, Saturday at Oaklawn will be full of great betting opportunities. Stay tuned to FanDuel TV all day for the latest news and live footage of the races, and make sure to wager on the card at FanDuel!

Oaklawn Park History

Back in 1905, the Hot Springs Mayor declared a half-day holiday for the opening of Oaklawn Park, with over 3,000 people attending the track on its first day of racing. The holiday heralded the beginning of a tradition that has lasted for over a century!

Due to political issues, no racing took place at Oaklawn between 1907 and 1916, but after a sustained period of action, the now-famous Arkansas Derby was inaugurated in 1936 with a purse of $5,000 offered to entrants.

By 1952, Oaklawn could boast daily attendances of almost 8,000 people and an average daily handle of well over $400,000, figures which rose by the turn of the decade to 10,000 and $500,000, respectively, with the Arkansas Derby purse increasing to $50,000 by 1965.

The track continued to go from strength to strength, and during a 50-day meeting in 1970, an average of 11,000 people were attending daily, with over $43,000,000 wagered over the course of the meet.

In the mid-70s, Oaklawn gave birth to the Racing Festival of the South, with pari-mutuel wagering amounting to a cool $80,000,000 that season, and by the 80s, over a quarter of a million people were attending the festival each year. By then, the purse for the Arkansas Derby was up at $500,000, and a new single-day attendance record was set with 71,000 showing up to see Rampage win the big race in 1986.

Ten years later, Arkansas Derby day saw a total handle of over $10.5 million, and by the turn of the millennium, Oaklawn was still seeing increases in attendance and wagering, meaning the track stands as one of the best in the country at present.

Southwest Stakes FAQ

Q: When is the Southwest Stakes?

A: The 2026 Southwest Stakes will be run on Friday, February 6, at 4:40 p.m. Central Standard Time. It is the 11th of 12 Oaklawn races on the day.

Q: Where is the Southwest Stakes?

A: It takes place at Oaklawn in Hot Springs, AR.

Q: Which trainer has the most wins in the Southwest Stakes?

A: Bob Baffert leads all trainers with six victories in the Southwest, most recently in 2023 with Arabian Knight. Baffert has two chances to extend that record in 2026, with either Litmus Test or Buetane.

Q: Who is the favorite for the 2026 Southwest Stakes?

A: The 5-2 morning-line favorite is Litmus Test, the only graded-stakes winner in the field. He comes into the race off of a win in the Los Alamitos Futurity, and is the better regarded of two from the barn of all-time Southwest win leader Bob Baffert. However, watch for action on his stablemate Buetane (4-1) as well as impressive local winner D’code (3-1) for trainer Ray Ashford, Jr.

Q: Who is the best Southwest Stakes jockey?

A: Rafael Bejarano leads all riders with four wins in the Southwest, most recently with Speed King in 2025. He does not have a call in 2026. Among jockeys who do, Ricardo Santana, Jr. leads with two wins, with Tapiture (2014) and Silver Prospector (2020). He can make it three this year with Circle Tap.

Q: Who won the 2025 Southwest Stakes?

A: Speed King won the 2025 Southwest for trainer Ron Moquett and jockey Rafael Bejarano. Neither returns to the Southwest this year.

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