2023 NFL Power Rankings: Week 9
Week 8 of the 2023 NFL season is officially in the books! For the first time this season, the Miami Dolphins sit on top of our NFL Power Rankings -- which come via numberFire's nERD metric -- while the New England Patriots sit on the bottom.
The Seattle Seahawks' 24-20 win over the Cleveland Browns sees them move up nine places, landing in 9th. Cleveland drops five spots to 16th.
The New Orleans Saints also jump up nine places after their 38-27 win over the Indianapolis Colts and now sit in 11th.
After their impressive 43-20 win over the Los Angeles Rams, the Dallas Cowboys move up four places and now reside in third.
The Denver Broncos 24-9 upset win over the Kansas City Chiefs sees them move up four spots to 28th.
The team with the largest increase in Super Bowl odds, per numberFire's model, after Week 8? The Philadelphia Eagles -- up 8.8 percentage points.
The team with the largest decrease in Super Bowl odds? The Chiefs -- down 11.9 percentage points.
These Power Rankings will continue to shift weekly as the story of the season is written.
Here's where things stand heading into Week 9.
NFL Power Rankings (Week 9)
Teams Ranked 32nd to 23rd
The writing has been on the wall for a while now, but entering Week 9, the Patriots have finally fallen to 32nd. New England's offense ranks 32nd, per numberFire, with a rushing attack that ranks 27th and a passing offense that ranks 30th. Their defense, which had been the only thing keeping them out of last place, now ranks 22nd, a steep fall from where they began the season. The one bright spot for the Patriots is their run defense, which still ranks 3rd, but a pass defense that ranks 28th allows their opponents to easily avoid their only strength. With a tough schedule still to come, there is little reason for optimism in New England.
The Carolina Panthers earned their first win of the season in Week 8, defeating the Houston Texans 15-13. Despite that, they fell two spots, as the manner in which they earned the win was unimpressive. They remain a team that is searching for answers on both sides of the ball, with an offense that ranks 28th, per numberFire, and a defense that ranks 26th.
For the first time since Week 4, the Broncos have escaped the bottom of the Power Rankings. Their upset victory over the Chiefs sees them move up four spots to 28th. They have now won two games in a row, and three of their last five. Of course, the Broncos still have a long way to go, but their offense has shown signs of improvement. Their rushing game ranks 10th and their passing game ranks 21st for an overall ranking of 15th, per numberFire. Their defense has conceded just 15 points per game over the last three weeks, but still ranks inside the bottom three against both the run and the pass. If Denver can improve their defense coming out of the bye, they could quickly move up the ranking in the second half of the season.
The Washington Commanders move up four spots after their 31-38 loss to the Eagles. The Commanders sit at 3-5 and remain a side that seems to alternate between disastrous and impressive performances on a weekly basis. After an excellent performance by Sam Howell, Washington's passing game now ranks 24th, paired with a ground game that ranks 14th, their offense ranks 22nd overall, per numberFire. Their defense is moving in the other direction and now ranks 28th overall, with a critical weakness against the pass, per numberFire. What Washington needs most is consistency from their offense. Week 8 was a step in the right direction, and they will have an excellent chance to back it up against the Patriots in Week 9.
After their 13-10 win over the New York Giants, the New York Jets fall five spots to 24th place. They have now won three games in a row, but Sunday's performance was a perfect demonstration of how slim the margins are for the Jets. Their defense, which ranks ninth overall, per numberFire, will keep them in games, but their offense's ability to capitalize on those opportunities remains uncertain. Their rushing game ranks 23rd and their passing game ranks 29th for an overall ranking of 29th, per numberFire. The more things change, the more they remain the same -- Zach Wilson has to make drastic improvements for this team to climb back up the rankings.
Teams Ranked 22nd to 13th
The Cincinnati Bengals continued to climb out of their early-season hole with a 31-17 victory over a suddenly reeling San Francisco 49ers team. The Bengals have now won three in a row and appear to be the side many expected them to be entering the season. They still sit in 20th, but the arrow is pointing directly up. Cincinnati's playoff odds improved massively after their win, jumping from 4.3% to 37.7%. They still have to face a difficult schedule, with clashes against the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens in two of their next three games. Their slow start this season leaves little room for error the rest of the way, but the Bengals' recent performances indicate that they are capable of salvaging their season.
The debut of quarterback Will Levis lifted the Tennessee Titans to a 28-23 win over the Atlanta Falcons. They moved up two spots and now sit in 19th. The Titans' pass defense, which ranks 25th per numberFire, remains a huge weakness. The presence of the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC North keeps Tennessee's hopes for success this season very low, their odds of making the playoffs sit at just 14.5%. That said, Levis' impressive debut points toward a bright future. The Titans would be wise to spend the second half of the season finding out exactly what they have in Levis, the 33rd overall pick in April's draft.
The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Browns both fell five spots this week after disappointing losses to the Jaguars and Colts, respectively. Both sides sit at 4-3, sandwiched in the AFC North by the 6-2 Ravens and the surging 4-3 Bengals. Both sides boast an elite defense, Cleveland's ranks second overall, per numberFire, while Pittsburgh's ranks sixth, and both sides are being let down by their offenses. Cleveland's offense ranks 30th overall and the Steelers' offense ranks 27th. With Kenny Pickett dealing with an injury and Deshaun Watson still sidelined, that is unlikely to change any time soon.
Speaking of injuries, the Los Angeles Rams may be without Matthew Stafford for at least a week after he was diagnosed with a UCL sprain. Los Angeles fell five spots after their loss to Dallas and their odds of making the playoffs dropped by 40.0%, the largest decline of the week. Unlike the Browns and Steelers, the Rams have been competitive this season because of their offense. Their defense ranks 24th overall, per numberFire, and is weaker against the run (26th) than the pass (18th). Their rushing offense ranks fourth and their passing offense ranks 13th, but they could now be without Stafford, in addition to the absence of running back Kyren Williams. After a winnable game against the Green Bay Packers in Week 9, the Rams have a bye in Week 10. They have a winnable slate of games in the second half of the season, but to do so, they need their stars to be healthy.
Teams Ranked 12th to 1st
The Saints bounced back in a big way in Week 8, defeating the Colts to end a two-game skid and move up nine spots to 11th place. It was an impressive performance for their offense in particular after they had struggled in back-to-back weeks. The Saints (3.38 nERD), along with the Jaguars (2.97 nERD) and Minnesota Vikings (3.39 nERD), currently form a mini-tier that is significantly above the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0.64 nERD) in 13th and significantly below the Seahawks (5.22 nERD) in ninth. This tier is defined by their decent odds of making the playoffs, all 68.5% or higher, but low odds of winning the Super Bowl, all 1.1% or lower. Minnesota just lost Kirk Cousins (Achilles) for the season, and traded for Joshua Dobbs, which will likely see them slide down the rankings in the coming weeks.
Speaking of Seattle, they also jumped up nine spots this week after their win over Cleveland. While a tier above the Saints, they have more in common with the teams below them, than the true contenders above them. The Seahawks are a solid team on both sides of the ball, but not elite on either. Their offense ranks 12th overall, per numberFire, and their defense ranks eighth. Their odds of making the playoffs (71.5%) are solid, but their odds of winning the Super Bowl remain low (1.6%).
The Chiefs and the 49ers both lost in Week 8, dropping four and three spots, respectively. For the Chiefs, it was their worst performance in a while and exposed an offense that has been far less impactful than in recent seasons. Patrick Mahomes was dealing with the flu, so there is an explanation, but they also only scored 19 points against the Broncos in their first meeting in Week 6. They will need to fix things on offense for their Week 9 shootout with the Dolphins in Germany.
The 49ers' struggles are far more concerning. After an excellent start to the season, they have now lost three games in a row. In those losses their defense performed okay, allowing point totals of 19, 22, and 31, but their offense failed to show up, scoring only 17 points in each game. For the 49ers to get back on track, that will have to change. The bye is coming at the perfect time for San Francisco, and they could get Deebo Samuel back heading into their Week 10 game against the Jaguars. The 49ers offense still ranks third, per numberFire, and their defense ranks 10th. They remain heavy favorites to win their division (80.7%) and have the third-best odds, per numberFire, of winning the Super Bowl (15.2%).
The story of the week is the Dolphins, who moved up eight spots after their win over the Patriots and now sit on top of our power rankings. The nERD margin between the top four teams is extremely small, the gap between Miami in first and the 49ers in fourth is just 0.30 nERD. The story for Miami remains the same, their defense is vulnerable, but they have the best offense in the league. Their passing offense ranks first, per numberFire, and their rushing offense ranks second. Their defense ranks 28th against the run and 12th against the pass for an overall ranking of 20th. The problem for the Dolphins is they have yet to put it all together against an elite opponent, failing in both their previous attempts against the Bills and Eagles. They will have another chance to do so in Week 9 when they face Kansas City.
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