2 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Bills at Texans on Thursday Night Football

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.

You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for the Thursday night matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Bills at Texans Betting Picks on Thursday Night Football

Total Over 43.5 (-105)

I don't love backing the over in a Davis Mills game, but two units help shove this total higher for me.

The first is the Bills' offense. Yes, they're in a tough matchup, but they're my third-ranked offense based on 2025 data thanks to both elite early-down efficiency and a lofty late-down success rate. Their offensive line is also among the best pass-blocking units in the league, meaning they'll be in a better spot against the Texans' superhumans up front than most.

The second unit is the Bills' defense. They've gotten gashed by the run to the point where I think we can have reasonable expectations for the Texans' ground game, but they also haven't been suffocating against the pass. This should be a spot where even a Mills-led offense can move the ball.

Put all of that indoors, and I've got this total a good bit above market. I'm willing to ride with that despite some justifiable concerns.

Most Passing Yards in Game: Davis Mills (+112)

This is partly due to the Texans' stout pass defense, but some of the Bills' injuries play a key role, as well.

The Bills will be without Dalton Kincaid for a second straight game. The team has a 68.4% pass rate when Kincaid is on the field, according to Next-Gen Stats, second highest mark of anybody on the team behind just passing-down back Ty Johnson. In the two games Kincaid has missed, Josh Allen has had just 26 and 30 pass attempts.

Mills has also been able to move the ball well enough, throwing for 292 and 274 passing yards in his two starts. Although those came in largely neutral or negative game scripts, we could see the same here with the Bills favored by 5.5. I'm willing to give him a swing when you combine that script with the impact of Kincaid's absence.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.