2 Best College Basketball Bets and Predictions for Thursday 12/5/24

College basketball is back, giving us plentiful betting options with so many teams in action each day.

Fortunately, we have abundant tools available that can aid our chances of finding good betting value. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.

Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and select some of the best bets of the day by utilizing the mentioned tools.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best College Basketball Picks

Purdue vs. Penn State

Trey Kaufman-Renn (PUR) Over 18.5 Points (-122)

No. 8 Purdue hits the road for tonight's Big Ten opener against Penn State -- a game the Boilermakers are 1.5-point underdogs in. Though I like Purdue to compete (and perhaps win outright) here, I'd rather back them via the prop market than a traditional spread.

That's primarily because Trey Kaufman-Renn's points prop is set at just 18.5 -- a tick too low given his strong early play and tonight's matchup.

TKR is averaging 19.1 points per game this season, though he's cleared this 18.5-point mark in only three of eight games. He's been a tad streaky relative to the prop but got up to 22 points in the three games he went over and has scored at least 14 in every game this season.

Perhaps most notable for Kaufman-Renn's chances against a Penn State side that's 57th nationally in KenPom's adjusted defense is how much more Kaufman-Renn has been involved against the high-majors on Purdue's schedule. In four games against Power Conference teams, TKR has averaged 22.3 points on 14.8 shot attempts per game, leading the team with a 32.5% usage rate, per Bart Torvik.

In an expanded role, Kaufman-Renn could have a field day inside against the Nittany Lions. Penn State has allowed the second-highest rate of at-rim shots in the Big Ten. And while they have held opponents to the lowest field goal percentage (52.1%) at the rim, Kaufman-Renn has been an elite interior finisher this season. He's taken 49% of shots at the rim and is shooting 72.3% down low.

That'll do nicely in a game we know Purdue will prioritize him in. It puts him in a solid spot to go over 18.5 points, but I think we can consider an alt. line, too. Trey Kaufman-Renn has +100 odds to score 20+ points and +240 odds to score 25+ points.

Xavier vs. TCU

TCU Moneyline (-111)

Xavier and TCU clash as a part of the Big 12-Big East Battle tonight in what's easily the most resume-relevant game of the night. Both sides were top-60 on KenPom coming into the year, though TCU has stumbled to a 4-3 start. But the Horned Frogs still have one of the top defenses in the country, and Xavier's 25-point loss to Michigan's stifling D is hard to ignore. As such, TCU's -111 moneyline odds (52.6% implied probability) have my eye when numberFire's projections expect them to win 74.9% of the time.

TCU had a disastrous trip to the Acrisure Invitational last week, dropping neutral-floor games to Santa Clara (86th on KenPom) and Colorado State (91st). But they'd handled the rest of their non-conference schedule with relative ease aside from a 10-point loss to Michigan (17th); the same Wolverines team blasted Xavier 78-53 just last week.

The Horned Frogs remain 31st nationally in adjusted defense, and they've forced the 31st-highest turnover rate in the country (22.1%). Xavier turned the ball over 19 times in their loss to Michigan, and they're just 124th in offensive turnover rate overall (16.6%).

In general, the Horned Frogs have the personnel to cause Xavier a ton of problems on defense. Their scheme focuses on forcing opponents into long, drawn-out possessions (346th in opp. average possession length) whereas Xavier wants to get shots up quick (56th in average possession length).

With TCU at home, I'm happy to side with the defense side as the deciding factor of what's essentially a pick'em. That's the consensus from KenPom and Torvik, too. Both sides project TCU by at least three points tonight.

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Which bets stand out to you across the nation tonight? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest college basketball betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.